Despite another weak ADP employment report, John Herrmann is expecting another better than expected gain in payrolls, not to mention a larger than expected fall in the unemployment rate. Delays to public school openings represent down-side risk to our models forecast. Employment isn't the only thing that John is optimistic about. He's expecting growth to rebound by a big 32% in Q3 and many of his forecasts still remain more constructive than the consensus, the Fed, and other official forecasts. That scenario coupled with the Fed's new policy approach and fresh fiscal stimulus after the election could prove to be a powerful potion for the real economy?!
In this episode, MUFG US Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, previews the August employment report, including his forecasts for non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate. He also explores the implications of those forecasts on his investment thesis, the 2s-30s yield curve steepener.
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