Are monthly payroll gains about to enter a “soft patch” and what factors may cause payroll growth to surge over most of 2021?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

As we get closer to the start of the next calendar year, we are tightening up our models forecasts, while assessing the recovery, thus far, over the year 2020. For the November employment report, John Herrmann outlines his models forecasts for another sharp decline in the U3 unemployment rate and for a solid gain in private sector payrolls. However, John’s models glean adverse risks for employment growth over the coming few months thereafter. By early spring, however, John’s models turn strongly constructive, and the 3^rd Quarter may achieve a growth rate in real GDP in excess of +8.00% q/q SAAR.

In this episode, MUFG’s U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, shares our clients’ concerns for the very near-term, over the medium-term, and longer-term and also how his forecasts for economic and employment growth significantly outpace both the consensus estimates and the official projections of the FOMC. Is another “taper tantrum” in the offing over the second half of the year 2021?