The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

The February Jobs Report – An initial step before a very big upswing in jobs growth?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

March 4, 2021

U.S. Rates Strategist John Herrmann previews the February employment report. He believes that the February job gain likely may be a solid one, close to +224.1K mom, but that this gain may pale in comparison to the pace of job growth over the months of March through June, which may average stronger than +500.0 per month. Additionally, John’s models continue to forecast remarkably strong GDP growth over the years 2021 and 2022, with the U3 unemployment rate plunging to near 3.98% by year-end 2021 and to near 3.171% by year-end 2022.

With such a favorable economic backdrop and with risk of an FOMC taper announcement in 2H-2021, John’s models continue to predict a further steepening of the 2s-10s and 2s-30 Treasury yield curve over the medium-term.

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