The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Event risk ahead - FX volatility set to pick up

Derek Halpenny. Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about the implications of the FOMC meeting and the US jobs report for the US dollar next week and beyond.
Derek also discusses the potential pound impact from the Bank of England meeting and why MUFG Research are highlighting the potential for EUR/GBP to continue breaking lower.
 
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Could France's new ESG ruling lead to divestments from the energy sector?

Pan-European funds claiming to invest on a ESG basis may need to sell all their fossil fuel holdings following a ruling by the French government.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), contextualises the update to France’s ISR fund label rule that restricts fossil fuel investments and aims to address greenwashing concerns.
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Will the USD’s strong start to the year continue?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland, Corporate Sales (FX) in London, discuss what have been the main drivers behind the US dollar’s rebound at the start of this year.
They also discuss the latest policy meetings from the BoJ and ECB in the week ahead.     
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What has been driving the FX market at the start of 2024?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Vice President from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the key drivers of FX market performance so far this year.
Will market expectations for earlier and deeper major central bank rate cuts be met?
 
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2024 outlooks – commodities, energy, emerging markets and geopolitics

Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), contextualises the 2024 outlooks on commodities, energy, emerging markets and geopolitics, offering perspectives on how clients should position their portfolios in an era of heightened uncertainty and ongoing stress in global markets.
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2024 Desk Strategy Outlook: Credit Market Views: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of Macro Strategy, discusses the 2024 outlook for U.S. credit markets with IG Desk Analyst Andrew Myers and HY Desk Analyst Bill Matthews. They cover topics from the recently published 2024 Desk Strategy Outlook, ranging from corporate bond issuance, key credit themes to watch ahead, and potential credit spread ranges. 

2024 Desk Strategy Outlook: Agency MBS Views: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, discusses the 2024 outlook for the agency MBS sector with Glenn Schultz, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy and our resident subject matter expert on mortgages. They cover topics from the recently published 2024 Desk Strategy Outlook, ranging from agency MBS issuance, prepayments, and the mortgage basis. They also discuss if "the second golden age of MBS" is still a relevant theme for investors and the agency MBS market. 

2024 Outlook Series: Exploring the Macro Economy and Fed View Ahead: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, discusses our Macro thesis around the economy and Fed policy. With unemployment low, inflation declining, and spending solid (helped by fiscal policy mid-year), all this resulted in stronger than expected GDP in 2023. The markets also embraced the soft landing narrative in the last two months of 2023. In George’s view, this makes for a hard comparison at the start of 2024. In our view, the long and variable lags from one of the fastest Fed hiking cycle catches up in 2024. This will put the riskier side of the credit spectrum in scope for further adjustment. Net, we are not calling for a hard landing recession but instead something more like a bumpy landing which is short-lived. In fact, a recession altogether could be avoided if the Fed meets or beats what is priced-in for cuts and bank lending rebounds. Yet, due to lags in the recession dating process, we won’t know we’re in one until after the fact. In the end, we stick by our view that the Fed will be starting an easing cycle soon (our base-case is for a 25bp March cut) where they will attempt to soften the decline in economic activity as the year progresses.

US jobs impact on the US dollar and MUFG’s 2024 FX views

The first week of 2024 is coming to an end and following the release of the US employment report, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk about the impact of the jobs data on the financial markets and why the data is not as strong as it first looked. Derek also outlines MUFG’s Themes of the Year pieces in the January FX Outlook publication and explains the MUFG US dollar view for 2024.
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Falling inflation remains an important driver for the FX market ahead of the Christmas holidays

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, discusses the impact on the FX market from building evidence of slowing inflation in the UK & US. How does the BoJ’s reluctance to signal a shift away from negative rates alter the outlook for the yen?