The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Three Things in India - Elections, RBI and Dividends

Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with Global Markets Research Asia, discuss three key things to watch in India - 1) the upcoming General Elections, 2) RBI policy on 7 June, and 3) the impact of larger than expected dividends from RBI
 
(Please see link to Disclaimer: Disclaimer - MUFG Research)

Not all safe-haven roads lead to the US dollar

This week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities talks to Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, currency analyst, about safe-havens in the FX market.
What determines safe-haven currencies and what other factors need to be considered in anticipating currency performance during a bout of risk-off? Derek argues that while the US dollar is the obvious safe-haven choice in the FX markets there are scenarios when that might not be the case and other currencies could take precedence.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Significance of ESMA’s guidelines on ESG fund names

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has released its long-awaited final report on the guidelines on funds’ names using ESG or sustainability-related terms, which are set to significantly impact the ESG fund market.
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), delves into the key elements of ESMA’s final report, contextualising their impact on corporates and offers perspective on what may be next for the European sustainable finance market.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

What’s driving a weaker USD?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Vice President from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss why the USD has been weakening in recent weeks and whether it is likely to extend further.
Will Biden’s decision to impose fresh tariffs on imports from China derail strengthening growth momentum outside of the US? 
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

US elections – implications for sustainability

With six months to go, the outcome of the US presidential elections – along with control of the Senate – is likely to have a profound impact across environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), assesses the key policies that could change under a new administration and the reverberations that may transpire within the ESG ecosystem.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Will shelter inflation catch up to slower rental prices?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, recaps what he has learned from the various trips he has been on while visiting investors and how it compares to our house view. He also goes over his short-term views on inflation ahead of the all-important CPI report. In George’s view, just like the last NFP report captured some of the concerns that have been forming for quarters now (and something we have been flagging), what if shelter cost declines show up now and actually start driving CPI lower, just in time for a Fed that needs greater confidence before thinking about when to ease rates ahead.

BoJ turning hawkish – FX concerns a factor

From the best performing G10 currency last week, the yen has turned and is the worst performer this week. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK Ireland and Switzerland FX Corporate Sales about the shift in tone from BoJ Governor Ueda who turned a lot more hawkish with concerns increasing over yen weakness. Derek also discusses the potential for the BoE cutting rates in June following the MPC meeting this week and the stronger GDP data today.

Has the tide turned for USD/JPY?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Andrea Hayward, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss the fallout from a volatile week for USD/JPY.
What have been the main drivers behind the sharp correction lower for USD/JPY?  
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

EU Green Deal Push(back)

EU parliamentary elections in June are fast approaching and the decibels of debate surrounding the Green Deal legislation are rising. Certain investors have suggested that a shift in political attention away from the Green Deal and that recent pushback and watering down of some regulation is negative for climate action in Europe.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), discusses this shift in focus and whether this is a reflection of a broader ESG pushback, or whether a shift in narrative mindset is warranted to ensure a successful implementation post June’s EU parliamentary elections.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

May FOMC Preview and still worried about macro divergences: The MUFG Global Markets Podcat

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks through what to expect at the May FOMC meeting. We believe that QT will be tapered while the Fed will start to acknowledge that real rates are too restrictive. Our base case is that Chair Powell will say tightening is working, but they are being mindful of the long and variable lags. Also, on the slightly more hawkish side, Chair Powell will likely reiterate that the FOMC lacks confidence on future inflation path and is not ready to commit to the timing on rate cuts. Lastly, George briefly highlights why we are still focused on and worried about the ongoing macro divergences in U.S. economic data and that the economy looks stronger due to fiscal policy.