The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

USD hit hard after Fed opens door to rate cuts. Will the USD sell-off be sustained?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Reza Nasehi, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss the FX market implications from this week’s major central bank policy updates.
While the Fed opened the door to rate cuts, will the BoJ prepare the ground for a rate hike in the week ahead?
 
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ESG Series: COP28 Outcomes

The 28th annual UN Climate Summit – known as COP28 – ended on 13 December with an agreement that’s being declared as both historic and full of loopholes.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), examines what success looked like at COP28 and what corporates and investors can look forward to at COP29 as well as other climate priorities in 2024.
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December FOMC & 2024 Outlook Preview: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, marks to market the price-action since our last podcast in late November as well as how markets are setup ahead of a key week for central banks. With markets getting ready to closing out another year, how the FOMC event is received will likely set the stage if the risk-on continues into year-end or not. We expect the Fed to push-back on the recent easing of financial conditions and avoid saying anything that might come across as under-writing rate cuts, something that the market is pricing in spades for 2024. With a recent goldilocks jobs report and a slightly higher than expected CPI print, especially with a higher super-core reading (one of chair Powell’s preferred inflation metrics), we do not believe that the Fed will convey a dovish message at the last FOMC meeting of 2023. Lastly, George gives us a glimpse into the themes and framework the team is using in order to setup for the 2024 macro world.

JPY surges – what lies ahead for USD/JPY?

The yen surged this week and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks about the yen move, whether the BoJ will hike rates this month and what lies ahead for the yen.
Derek also discusses the heavy schedule of central bank meetings next week, including the Fed and the ECB and what this means for G10 currencies.
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ESG Series: COP28 progress so far | MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Several announcements coming out of the first days of COP28 demonstrate the seriousness that stakeholders are aiming to adopt the summit's agenda. This may sound trivial, but such wrangling typically takes up a considerable amount of negotiation time at climate talks, such as the mid-year intersessional gathering in Bonn, where countries couldn’t agree on the agenda until the penultimate day. 
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), discusses the major takeaways from COP28 thus far and what success may look like as the summit draws to a close on 12 December.

Will the USD sell off extend further?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Vice President from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the FX market implications from the ongoing dovish repricing of central policy expectations. Will the USD sell off extend further in the week ahead?  
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ESG Series: COP28 expectations and implications – What you need to know

COP28, the United Nations’ annual climate change conference, kicked off on 30 November, with tens of thousands of delegates congregating in the UAE to further the global climate process.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), provides an examination into what corporates and investors need to know during the conference and what may transpire in 2024.
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The US dollar weaker across all G10 currencies once again

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, talks to Shan Husain, Vice President - Institutional Investors FX Sales EMEA, about the factors behind why the euro has underperformed this week – it was the second worst performing G10 currency this week. Derek also looks to next week with the RBNZ meeting, data from the US and updates on trade views.
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U.S. Markets, is risk-on whistling past the bond-yard?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks us through some of his latest special topics in the Macro2Markets Monthly Outlook report. As the title suggests, we first explore the risk-on mood on Wall Street and what is driving it. In George’s view, he believes it is a bit premature that some market participants are reading the weaker data and the market-based interest rate declines as a good thing. George wraps up by providing his views on the current developments in bank lending and general credit conditions overall. He also takes us through the big moves that are happening on the U.S. government deficit front and their implications.
 

FX market fallout from slowing inflation

Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Reza Nasehi, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales group for EMEA in London, discuss the impact on the FX market from further evidence of slowing inflation in the UK and US. Has the tide turned against the US dollar?
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)