The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

The 10Yr JGB zone has been dented as USDJPY continues to climb and the JGB yield curve steepens. Market speculation about Bank of Japan yield control operations persists ahead of the central bank’s June meeting. USDJPY basis has widened in line with U.S. rates. The Nikkei Average is lurching along. 
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews lifers’ FY21 earnings results and changes in their asset management portfolios, analyzes JPY cross asset developments in May, and previews the June BoJ meeting. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
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Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Director of MUFG’s Global Customer Marketing Group for EMEA in London, discuss the main fundamental drivers of the yen’s recent sharp sell-off, and potential triggers for a reversal of the bearish trend.
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In today’s episode, Hailey Orr, MUFG Capital Markets Strategist, discusses her team’s most recent publication, New World Order, where they outline 15 defining themes for the global economy and markets in the second half of 2022. In the podcast, Hailey focuses specifically on the transition from “COVID” linked inflation to “conflict” linked inflation and the implications that has for markets driven by stagflation risk. Despite numerous challenges in the economy and markets today, silver linings can still be found.
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JPY basis has widened while staying flat amidst a mix of buying and selling as JPY rates have stabilized and the Yen has generally weakened against USD (Monday’s price action notwithstanding). The Nikkei Average has started to tick up again slowly. Japanese investors could gradually restore their foreign bond positions as they both buy and sell during the month of June. Separately, June also brings the high season for Samurai bond issuance.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses his outlook for Yen assets, analyzes BoJ operations and fiscal fund flows, and reviews the Samurai bond market. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
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In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves recaps his latest Macro2Markets Monthly report and goes over how macro narratives are evolving and how markets are adjusting to competing themes. George believes that rate risks are in the process of taking a back seat to coming credit concerns where the cross roads of high inflation and slowing growth may result in a challenging environment for Corporate America, especially firms dependent on low rates and fast economic activity. George views the rebound in risk assets as markets adjusting from oversold conditions, and that more downside risks remain for 2022.
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The US dollar depreciated again this week, with US yields declining and equity markets rebounding – always a bad mix for the dollar. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities discusses the outlook for the currency with Michael Owen, MUFG’s Head of Global Client desk for EMEA in London.
Where is the US dollar on the famous USD Smile theory and will the more favourable financial market conditions persist and weaken the dollar further?
Derek also provides his view on the market impact of the UK fiscal support package announced on Thursday.
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USDJPY and Japan stocks continue to fall, pulled down by weakness for U.S. stocks. JGB rates have not moved much under the tight control of the BoJ’s yield management, but JPY basis is still likely to widen. Japanese G10 bond flows are substantial, and Tokyo market JGB asset swap appeal could be impacted by Japanese investors trading JGBs.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews developments with cross-asset JPY asset positions, as displayed in the March USTIC and J-BoP, and April JSDA data. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen Rate, and Yen basis.
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Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Matthieu Gloux, Head of MUFG’s Global Client Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the recent correction lower for the USD, and what factors could help to trigger a sustained reversal.  
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Japanese companies and banks have been releasing earnings results. A key point for the bank sector has been valuation losses on foreign bond holdings, while for exporters, a higher USDJPY and better terms of trade have been a boon for earnings. JPY basis has been widening as USDJPY and JPY rates have benefitted from risk aversion.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews April securities investing flows and Japanese lifers’ investment strategies for the first half of fiscal year 2022. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen cross-currency basis.
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Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Director of MUFG’s Global Customer Marketing Group for EMEA in London, discuss the recent turn around for the yen, and the likelihood of EUR/USD hitting parity as it tests the lows from the start of 2017.
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In today's episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy Glenn Schultz reviews April’s prepayment data, issuance trends in the agency MBS market, and the Federal Reserve’s MBS portfolio run-off. He discusses how the confluence of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, balance sheet run-off, and issuance and prepayment trends inform MUFG’s ‘old normal’ thesis for the agency MBS valuations and the current coupon spread.
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On April 28, the Bank of Japan bucked market speculation and left monetary policy unchanged. USDJPY continued on its uptrend, but JPY rates remained steady and JPY basis widened. Those trends did not change over Golden Week, even after the FOMC meeting.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the April BoJ Monetary Policy Board meeting and BoJ monetary operations, and also outlines the key points regarding JPY cross assets in May. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
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Following the FOMC and BoE meetings this week, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, discusses the implications for the dollar and the pound going forward with Chris de Sibert, Head of Institutional Investors FX Sales for EMEA.
Will the large swings for the US dollar continue and what do the grim forecasts from the BoE mean for monetary tightening and the pound going forward?
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In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves discusses his FOMC preview for the upcoming May meeting. George believes the Fed cannot flip to dovish this soon, and thus this meeting will likely come across as hawkish as they announce QT and lift rates by 50bps, the first time since 2000.
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Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Michael Owen, MUFG’s Head of Global Client desk for EMEA in London, discuss why the USD has surged to multi-decade highs. Will next week’s FOMC meeting affect the USD’s bullish momentum?
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In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves provides an update on what has driven rates higher over the course of April. He also refreshes his view on the interplay of financial conditions, Fed’s QT, and how high short rates can ultimately go in the coming quarters.
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The BoJ has given notice of consecutive fixed-rate fund purchase operations and prevented Yen rates from rising before the April Monetary Policy Meeting. Spot Dollar Yen has risen significantly, but volatility in both the Nikkei Average and Yen basis has been fairly limited.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido previews the April BoJ monetary policy board meeting. He also shares his outlook for Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis ahead of Japan’s “Golden Week” holiday.
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With USD/JPY hitting the highest level since 2002, it has been another tumultuous week in the FX markets. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, discusses the ongoing turmoil with Simon Mayes, Director of MUFG’s Global Customer Marketing Group for EMEA in London, breaking down vital market issues like the prospect for joint intervention by Japan and the US to stem yen weakness.
The Bank of Japan policy meeting on April 28 could be key in any FX intervention response. Derek also covers the outlook for the pound after the plunge in GBP/USD and updates listeners on MUFG’s trade views.
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In today’s episode, Leanne Rakowitz, MUFG Head of ESG Coverage in the Americas, and Amanda Kavanaugh, MUFG Head of Sustainable Finance in the Americas, discuss the importance of this year’s Earth Day theme “invest in our planet,” the global sustainability progress they’ve seen over the past year, and how evolving regulatory activity, trends, and investor interest will impact the market in the year ahead.   
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The Yen continues to weaken. In contrast, the Nikkei, Yen rate, and Yen basis have been relatively flat. Finance Minister Suzuki has shown concern for Yen weakening, while Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda appears to be more positive.  
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects U.S. bond investing flows based on the February USTIC data and discusses the attributes of Japan stock investing flows as reflected by JPX data and what to expect from the Kishida administration. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
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The USD has hit fresh highs over the past week driven by the Fed’s plans for faster policy tightening and building downside risks to growth outside of the U.S.
Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Michael Owen, MUFG’s Head of Global Client desk for EMEA in London, discuss whether the USD’s bullish trend is set to continue, and implications from recent central bank policy updates, including BoC, ECB and RBNZ.
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JPY has weakened thus far in FY22. JPY rates have remained high even under the watchful eye of the Bank of Japan and its YCC operations. The Nikkei Average has moved little. U.S. Fed officials have issued comments on rate hikes and quantitative tightening, but the BoJ leadership has not made any changes to monetary policy in response. The stances of U.S. and Japanese monetary policy officials are in stark contrast for now  ahead of the U.S. November mid-term elections and the Japanese July Upper House elections.  
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects March securities investing flows, the balance between the MoF’s FY22 JGB issuance plans and the BoJ’s JGB buying plans, and the BoJ’s yield control tools. He also shares his views across Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis markets.
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After a US dollar advance of over 1% this week, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, discusses with Matthieu Gloux, Head of Global Client Sales EMEA, whether this US dollar strength will persist.
Then there is Federal Reserve balance sheet shrinkage plans, the first round of the French presidential election on Sunday and the ECB policy meeting on April 14 - how will these impact FX markets going forward? Listen to hear Derek’s analysis.
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In today’s episode, Hailey Orr, MUFG Capital Markets Strategist, discusses her team’s new publication and implications for the global economy and markets. 
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