The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Response to the question ”Who is Going to buy MBS” | The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In this month’s episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, Glenn Schultz, discusses August's prepayment data and answers the question of whether the Spring/Summer selling season prepayment data indicate a structural shift in the agency MBS market back to the “old normal”. He also addresses the question “Who is going to buy Agency MBS?” and how issuance will influence the agency MBS basis going forward.

What’s next for China’s economy & CNY? | The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Lin Li, Head of Global Markets Research Asia, discuss the outlook for China’s economy and the renminbi.
With USD/CNY just hitting the highest level since 2007 is this the start of another leg lower for the renminbi? What are the potential spill-overs for the global economy and FX market? 

US jobs data no gamechanger for FX and rates | The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Following today’s employment report from the US, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Matthieu Gloux, Head of Global Client Sales for EMEA, about the implications for the dollar and whether the data changes the outlook for Fed policy.
Derek also highlights the changes to MUFG’s US dollar forecasts following the release today of the monthly Foreign Exchange Outlook publication and updates listeners on the MUFG Research trade ideas.

Will the USD rally continue beyond Jackson Hole?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Jack Greenslade from the Global Customer Marketing Group discuss the main drivers of the USD’s strong rebound over the summer. Is the USD rally likely to extend further beyond Jackson Hole?

ESG Series: AI’s influence in scaling ESG’s maturation – Transformative or disruptive? | The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Transformational progress in Artificial Intelligence (AI) is stimulating fear as well as excitement. Large language models (LLMS) – the genus that powers ChatGPT, a generative AI tool – have surprised even their creators with its unprecedented reach given the sheer velocity this technology is being scaled. Yet, a big problem is that they are black boxes and with the genie out of the bottle, it remains a complex task to weigh AI’s distinctive opportunities and risks in fostering ESG’s burgeoning relevance.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), discusses MUFG’s latest ESG thought leadership report that examines the plethora of ESG implications from the evolution in AI – see here for the full report.

US dollar bullish bias intact – China and Powell in focus | The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

The increased focus on China and the potential fallout from a continued weakening of growth and missed payments linked to property market losses played a key role in driving markets this week.  
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Swiss Corporate Sales, about the increased influence of CNY in the FX markets and why these developments and other factors remain supportive for the US dollar. Derek looks ahead to next week and the Jackson Hole Symposium and the possible risks of intervention in USD/JPY.

U.S. Fiscal Perspectives and Views thru Labor Day

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, reviews the recent Fitch downgrade of the U.S. credit to AA+ and compares it to the first downgrade by S&P roughly 12 years ago. He believes this time the backdrop is different given that the debt loads are even larger now and the Fed has rates much higher versus back then when rates were anchored by the near zero rate policy of that time period. Market reactions thus far are also different versus the first downgrade too. The other issue is that the Fitch downgrade occurred during a week when the Treasury was announcing the need to issue more debt and increase the auction sizes of Treasury securities. George has been highlighting that the sequence from the Fed to the BoJ tweaking YCC and then more UST debt, all of which have largely come to fruition as per George’s views, should result in rates in the middle of the yield curve (known as the belly and/or intermediate rates) would do most of the adjustment higher. So far that is what we have seen with 10s now well above the 4% level. Lastly, George looks forward and discusses why NFP, which is always important, but unless it breaks the string of weaker NFP reports of late, than the Fed is likely to skip in September.  

US inflation softer, but yields & USD higher – what’s going on? | The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Following another favourable US inflation report this week, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Shan Husain, Vice President, Financial Institutional Sales EMEA, about the financial market reaction to the data and what it means for the US dollar and rates going forward. Derek also looks ahead to next week which will see the focus on inflation turn to the UK.

The Lowdown on Turnover and Carry Conviction: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In this month’s episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, Glenn Schultz, discusses July's prepayment data and gives the lowdown on the Spring/Summer selling season's turnover. He also reviews relative value across the specified pool stories highlighting those he believes offer MBS investors superior relative carry.  Finally, Glenn reviews our basis forecast and makes the argument for our year-end target of 120 to 130 basis points for the 30-year agency current coupon.
 

What has been driving the recent pick-up in FX market volatility? | The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst in London, discuss the main market impacts from the recent surprise announcements from the BoJ and Fitch. The USD has staged a strong rebound since the middle of last month, will it continue in the week ahead?