The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Yields of G10 sovereign bonds, especially U.S. Treasury and JGB yields, declined in early November, following the policy meetings by the FOMC, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of England. And the rally in spot Dollar/Yen has stalled coincidently with the Yen rallying against other currencies. Yen basis has been particularly volatile but has come off the wides.  
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido summarizes TDB and JGB issuance prospects for November, JPY basis moves, and Japanese pensions investment results. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.
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Last week was a busy week for central bank policy updates, with the Bank of England delivering the biggest market surprise by leaving rates unchanged after recent hawkish policy signals. The Fed meeting was less eventful; good communication from the Fed has prevented another taper tantrum as it outlined plans to start tapering Quantitative Easing. The USD has benefitted from the scaling back of rate-hike expectations outside of the US and is set to record fresh year to date highs in the week ahead.
Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Michael Owen, MUFG’s Head of Global Client desk for EMEA in London, discuss the market implications of last week's events, adding a short GBP/CHF trade idea to reflect heightened downside risks for the GBP from rising inflation expectations and Brexit tensions.
Listen to the podcast for more insights.
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In today's episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves takes us back and compares Taper 1.0 and how Taper 2.0 will differ slightly given the urgency to wrap up QE before the Fed begins to contemplate raising rates in 2022 and beyond. George gives us a glimpse into his latest thoughts covered in his FOMC preview and discusses the interest rate outlook into and out of the Fed meeting.
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The ruling coalition retained a simple majority of seats, the threshold for victory, and stanched its losses in Lower House elections. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will stay in office. The Nikkei Average has reacted by surging, ahead of USDJPY and JPY rates. Risk appetite is strong, and investors will be watching the extraordinary Diet session this month as well as the specifics of economic policies, especially in regard to additional economic measures and the extraordinary Diet session.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido summarizes the outcome of the Lower House elections. He then discusses the Bank of Japan’s October meeting and Japanese life insurance companies’ second half asset management strategies. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
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Next week will be a busy one with a number of key central bank meetings starting with the RBA on Tuesday, followed by the FOMC on Wednesday and the BoE on Thursday. Central banks are struggling to convince the markets that the post-COVID inflation surge will be transitory. Will we see changes in monetary stances confirmed this week?
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, and Michael Owen, MUFG’s Head of Global Client desk discuss the prospects for some change in policy stances and the implications for the FX markets going forward.
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Byelections were held for Upper House seats in Shizuoka and Yamaguchi prefectures on October 24. The LDP won one and lost one, so the ruling coalition lost one of the two seats that were up for election. Tokyo markets are now awaiting the results of the October 31 Lower House election.In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido previews the October BoJ monetary policy meeting and general elections in addition to reviewing the August USTIC and September JSDA flow data. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.
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It has been a bad week for the USD. Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Michael Owen, MUFG’s Head of Global Client desk for EMEA in London, discuss what has been driving the USD weaker and what to expect from the BoC and ECB at next week’s policy meetings.
Will the BoC and ECB push back against rate hike expectations? Listen to the podcast for more insights.
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In today’s episode, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves reviews his latest piece from the Global Markets Monthly as well as discusses the latest developments on the yield curve and short-term interest rate markets.
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So far in October, the number of daily new COVID-19 infections has declined, and on October 14, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida dissolved the Lower House. Campaigning has begun ahead of the General Election on October 31. Both the ruling and opposition parties promise subsidies and tax cuts. JPY rates are trending upward, and Japanese investors are causing JPY basis to widen. USDJPY has risen, pushed upward primarily by rising oil prices.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses September and October securities investing flows in the wake of the Lower House dissolution and ahead of the general elections. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.
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The market shifted back from stagflation towards reflation this week and saw strong performances from AUD, NZD, NOK and CAD but how does this impact the USD? And what’s happening with the JPY and TRY?
Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, discusses the past week with Simon Mayes, Director of MUFG’s Global Customer Marketing Group for EMEA in London and gives his outlook for the week ahead, watching in particular for key data releases from China.
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In this episode, Glenn Schultz, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, discusses pending and existing home sales and how this gives us a glimpse into prepayment speeds. He also goes over what is driving the turnover rate higher than model assumptions.
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In today's episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves gives us a brief update on the various factors that have been driving up rates over the last 2 weeks and how the narrative on inflation, episodic or not, is now also leading to some twisting of the yield curves, too.
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On the back of weaker-than-expected U.S. payrolls this week, can we expect the Fed to announce the start of tapering in November asks Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, in conversation with Michael Owen, MUFG’s Head of Global Client desk for EMEA in London. What does today’s data mean for the US dollar going forward?
Looking ahead, Derek also gives his outlook for the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy and updates listeners on MUFG Research trade ideas.
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An extraordinary session of the Diet opens. USDJPY upside has been heavy and JGB rates have moved little after rising, while the Nikkei Average has largely retraced its surge following the announcement of previous Prime Minister Suga stepping down. A number of political events lie ahead this fall, and JPY assets will likely be volatile.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the LDP leadership election, fiscal and monetary policy triggers, the September Tankan survey, and cross-border flows. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.
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Since the onset of the COVID crisis 18 months ago, the Fed has doubled its balance sheet from $4 to $8 trillion, and Congress has passed $6.2 trillion of fiscal stimulus (with another $2-3 trillion likely in the weeks ahead). This, in turn, has contributed to an acceleration of the recovery cycle accompanied by significant supply-demand imbalances across the economy.
In today’s episode, Tom Joyce, MUFG Head of Capital Markets Strategy, discusses his latest views on the economic / markets / and policy outlook and expectations into year-end 2021 and beyond.
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With the Dollar index breaking above the previous yearly highs and the Pound underperforming among its G10 peers, this week has proved to be one to watch for investors.
On the podcast, Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Director of MUFG’s Global Customer Marketing Group for EMEA in London, Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Director of MUFG’s Global Customer Marketing Group for EMEA in London,
Listen to the podcast for more insights.
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Although the situation remains very fluid, it looks like the markets are starting to get concerned over the U.S. Debt Ceiling again. In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves is joined by Anthony Tarabocchia, Head of the Repo Desk for MUFG to discuss market implications of a drawn out debt ceiling extension and potential scenarios.
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The end of H1 FY21 is at hand. USDJPY, JPY rates, and Japan stocks are up since the FOMC’s September meeting. U.S. short-term rates have trended downward, and the front end of the JPY basis curve has tightened. Japanese politicians are focusing on preparing for the Lower House elections.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the BoJ’s September monetary policy meeting, including the BoJ’s view of risks to supply chain restrictions and China, as well as potential near term market triggers. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.
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This week, the UK is reckoning with a myriad of challenges; fuel supply issues, 1.5 million workers set to see the end of the government furlough scheme and consumer confidence falling sharply.
Michael Owen, MUFG’s Head of Global Clients for EMEA, joins Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, to discuss how the macro environment backdrop will impact GBP and the market reaction following the German election outcome.
Listen to the podcast for more insights.
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The bond markets have been in one of the tightest ranges in recent history, meanwhile volatility is starting to pick up as markets respond to global events and policy challenges in the U.S. In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves shares his views on how all this might impact the U.S. bond markets and what to expect at the upcoming FOMC meeting.
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Four candidates, including new entrant and former internal affairs minister Seiko Noda, have declared their intent of running for the LDP leadership. The various factions have been stoking a melee, rather than coalescing around a single candidate. Investors are wary that USDJPY, the Nikkei Average, and JPY rates could come under downward pressure ahead of the September FOMC and Bank of Japan policy meetings both scheduled for September 21-22, as risks related to COVID-19 variants fester. Meanwhile, JPY basis is also less likely to widen this week.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido examines cross-border investment activity in July and discusses the BoJ’s financial stability report. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis. 
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Looking ahead to a busy week, Lee Hardman, currency analyst, is joined by Simon Mayes, Director of MUFG's Global Customer Marketing Group for EMEA, to discuss the key events to watch for.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on Wednesday and Lee outlines what impact could be seen to USD as the markets anticipate an indication of when to expect the first rate hike in 2022.
Across the pond, Canada will be voting in their Federal Election. Lee shares his insights on the impact on the Canadian dollar if Prime Minister Trudeau is re-elected and what the markets can expect for a second term Trudeau minority government.
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Prime Minister Suga announced that he will not run for re-election as leader of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party. This suggests that investors would be wise to watch the finer points of the candidates’ policy debates for potential triggers for financial markets. USDJPY, JGB, and JPY basis have all stayed within range of late, but over the near term, any changes in government policy could tighten the correlation to a bullish Nikkei Average.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido examines implications for monetary and fiscal policy as they pertain to JGB and JPY basis. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis. 
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This week, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, speaks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client desk for EMEA, about the financial market themes going forward. It has been a fragile start to the week, with concern about global growth implications as inflation figures continue to sound alarm bells. Key CPI data releases over the coming week will be vital, with a strong focus on how these will be interpreted by investors.
Michael also poses the question about how politics could drive the market. Norway has a general election today, and with upcoming elections in Germany and Japan, what could the FX implications be? Listen now for Derek’s analysis.
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