The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

ESG Series: Putting global carbon markets to work – Scaling up to meet net zero ambitions: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Global carbon markets are fast becoming one of the most effective instruments in the journey to net zero. Yet, many countries are reluctant to use this policy lever, as introducing or scaling up carbon pricing faces multiple decisions when selecting among, and within, policy tools.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), discusses the latest MUFG ESG report wherein he believes that whilst mass adoption for carbon markets is still a long way off, the fastest and most practical way to keep alive the goal of restricting global warming to below 2oC is scaling up global carbon markets (see here for the full report).
 
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Summer Turnover Beating Expectations and the Set-up to 120 Mortgage Basis

In this month’s podcast, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, Glenn Schultz, reviews the implications of how turnover has exceeded market expectations and the implications for valuation across the coupon stack. Notably, we make the case a continued tightening of the current coupon basis and our year-end forecast of 120 basis points against the back drop of prepayment, FDIC bank liquidation, and origination volumes.

June FOMC Preview: A skip is in store but all about the messaging...

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, returns to highlight the scenarios he is expecting at the upcoming June FOMC meeting and the potential market implications. George thinks the aim will be to deliver a hawkish skip, will the markets hear that or something entirely different is what we will be trying to assess. Post Fed we think markets should turn their attention from inflation fears and central bank action towards the growth outlook. We believe quarter-end/month-end has the potential for some early fireworks before we get into the start of summer.

Japanese lifer earnings, cross-border securities flows and the June BoJ meeting – The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

The Nikkei Average remains well bid while USDJPY feels a bit more top-heavy. In contrast JPY rates and JPY basis remain little changed.
In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses Japanese life insurance company fiscal year 2022 earnings, International Transactions in Securities data and the upcoming BoJ policy meeting. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.
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Will the Fed reinforce USD sell-off? The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Vice President for Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the potential impact of the upcoming FOMC meeting on USD performance.
Will the Fed follow in the footsteps of hawkish policy surprises delivered by the BoC and RBA over the past week?
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Exploring liquidity dynamics that may supercharge the Fed’s tightening efforts during the summer…

With the debt ceiling resolution behind us, George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, returns to recap what feels like a market that is in a holding pattern until the passage of the CPI print and the FOMC meeting. He also discusses the medium-term risks with a keen focus on liquidity dynamics. The Treasury will be replenishing its General Account (TGA), which sits on the Fed's liability side of the balance-sheet via raising cash from T-bill issuance. At a minimum, this will likely result in a crowding out effect and at a maximum level, drain market liquidity. Given some areas of the banking system remain fragile and in need of funding, it’s critical to watch how this plays out over the summer. With QT ongoing and the Fed aiming to keep rates higher for longer, this liquidity story can supercharge the Fed’s tightening efforts ahead.

The Nikkei flirts with valuations not seen in over a generation as the Yen depreciates while Yen rate and basis remain highly unchanged – The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

The Nikkei Average continues its upward climb. USDJPY has kept pace, topping the 140-mark. On the other hand, JGB yields and JPY basis have remained little changed.
In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews asset price developments during May and looks ahead to June based upon BoJ monetary policy and fiscal and monetary fund flows. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
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The Elephant in the Room – US Long-term Debt Outlook | The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Following the stronger than expected US jobs report, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities discusses with Julie Ellert, Head of Frabelux FX Corporate Sales, what the implications are for the US dollar and the FOMC meeting later this month.
Derek also outlines what he calls “the elephant in the room” following the debt ceiling deal – that is the terrible long-term debt outlook for the US. This issue will have to be tackled in the coming years which point to weaker growth and a weaker US dollar.

Will OPEC+ surprise global oil markets? The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Oil prices ended May at their lowest point for over eight months, raising pressure on OPEC+ to implement another round of production cuts at its 3-4 June meeting.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), believes that the current tight fundamentals in the physical oil market do not provide a case for further OPEC+ production cuts, although the bearish macro environment does. On net, he believes the decision is finely balanced and will likely conclude by the group communicating a hawkish wait-and-see approach and not taking additional barrels off global markets.
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The USD is bouncing back - is there anything that can stop it? The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Vice President of Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the turning around of the USD and whether it is likely to continue in the week ahead of the US debt ceiling crescendo.
However, the biggest, hawkish repricing of central policy has been in the UK. How does this impact the pound?
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)