The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

The State of Emergency was lifted for 39 of 47 prefectures in Japan last Thursday, May 14. Japanese companies are restarting business, but there is significant concern that coronavirus cases will start to rise again. As if all that wasn't enough, amidst this fluid situation Japanese companies are currently releasing fiscal year 2019 earnings.
In this episode MUFG’s Takahiro Sekido, Chief Japan Strategist of Global Markets Research, discusses Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s 2nd fiscal stimulus package, risk appetite among Japanese investors, cross border flows and his view on the Yen, JPY rates and USDJPY basis.

A negative rates shift from the Bank of England, the UK Government's handling of COVID-19, Brexit negotiations stalling, and a dreary economic outlook are all factors causing downside pressures to GBP, according to Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets.
Listen below to hear Derek’s outlook for the GBP, USD, and his unusual trade idea.

The U.S. government only recently unleashed historic fiscal stimulus to address the COVID-19 pandemic, yet discussions are already turning toward another round of stimulus. With form, timing and ultimate passage unclear, what is an investor to do?
In this episode Jesse Wheeler, of MUFG's Washington DC Representative Office, reviews where discussions of additional stimulus currently stand. He also explores Democratic, Republican and White House priorities and shares what we can expect to be in the ultimate legislation.

Prime Minister Abe has extended the State of Emergency in Japan to the end of May. The Diet passed a fiscal supplementary budget for FY20 on April 30. What is the impact of fiscal and monetary policy to address the economic fall-out from the coronavirus pandemic, including cash pay-outs to residents?
In this episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist, Takahiro Sekido, reviews adjustments to Abenomics and Bank of Japan monetary policy amidst the COVID-19 uncertainty. He also explores triggers for the Yen, USDJPY cross currency basis and JPY rates in Q2 2020.

While many have speculated that the COVID-19 crisis could cause the UK's largest recession for 300 years, the Bank of England is optimistic that the repercussions will leave limited scarring in the long-term. Risks though are tilted firmly to the downside for the UK economy.
Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG considers whether a lack of progress in Brexit trade talks could trigger a weaker pound in this week's podcast
Thoughts on the latest BoE policy update?
The government’s plans and the outlook for the UK economy?
How are things progressing on the Brexit negotiations front?

March payrolls were bad, but April payrolls will be worse. How does the rest of the U.S. April employment report shake out? The massive government stimulus should help reverse these declines. The question is how much— and for how long. 
In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, previews the May employment report, explores implications of the U.S. government’s paycheck protection program, and discusses his medium term forecast for the U.S. labor market and broader economy.

With U.S. elections around the corner, President Trump has not held back his thoughts on China's management of the COVID-19 pandemic which may result in further trade war tensions. Investors are understandably concerned, but will Trump follow through?
In Europe, all eyes are on lockdown reversal plans and any moves by the Bank of England ahead of Thursday's meeting.
Listen to this week's podcast for insight on the current state of the markets from Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA.

Weak first quarter U.S. growth is in the rearview mirror, but what does that tell us about growth in the second quarter, and in the second half, of 2020? In addition, the Fed has made it clear that it will do everything in its power to achieve its policy goals. So, what's next?
 In this episode MUFG Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, reviews the weaker than consensus Q1 GDP print, the April FOMC meeting, and peers into some of the risks to the April employment report.

This week on the podcast Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG, gives his outlook for upcoming policy meetings from central banks as well as analysis of new initiatives announced from the BOJ.
The ECB could be feeling the pressure amidst an economic slump resulting from COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe, while the Fed has been already been extremely aggressive in its response so far – what will their next moves be? 

U.S. voters head to the polls November 3, 2020, to select a president, all 435 Members of the House of Representatives, and one third of the Senate. These decisions will be made in the context of a rapidly evolving landscape already upended by the coronavirus. What should investors be watching? And what is the likely outcome?
In this episode Jordan Heiber, Deputy Representative in MUFG’s Washington DC Representative Office explores how the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is impacting the outlook for the elections this November.

Remarkable oil market sell-offs are likely to only rattle investors in the short term, as positive signs in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic in developed economies emerged this week.
However, as the virus begins to take hold of emerging markets in the face of warnings from the WHO about a second wave of infections globally, are longer-term repercussions on the cards? Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, discusses the week ahead.
 

Weak March retail sales and expectations for weak April retail sales seem in stark contrast to current financial market pricing. Structural issues of the U.S. labor market suggest that any recovery could face challenges. What is an investor to do?
In this episode of the MUFG Global Markets Podcast, MUFG Rates Strategist John Herrmann explores the implications of weak retail sales and what recovery may look like, along with investment implications for that scenario.
 

The focus in Europe is now on the timing and strategy for lockdown reversals. On this week’s podcast, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, gives an overview of the two factors which will impact this decision making: the capacity of state healthcare systems and the extent of testing for COVID-19.
Germany, Switzerland and Austria are leading the way, but the UK is trailing behind on both these fronts.
Listen for Derek’s thoughts on the timeline for these reversals and the current state of the markets. 
1. With an improvement in COVID-19 data, it’s all about the economy and lockdowns. The rate of recovery versus new cases of COVID will be key to governments’ decisions to open up - in the UK and in European countries such as Germany, France, Switzerland and Austria.
 2. Lockdowns through April and, apart from Germany, reversals over several weeks from May. Countries might reverse sector by sector but there will be significant restrictions  throughout the summer.
3.  Investors seem to have focused on the good news and equities look “pretty rich” given the risks. There might be reversals of lockdowns eg what's happened in China recently. From a FX perspective, the dollar is likely to hold at these levels.

Exploring the downside risks in the age of COVID-19. 
In this episode of the MUFG Global Markets Podcast, we continue our conversation with John Herrmann, U.S. Rates Strategist for MUFG, on U.S. unemployment and implications for GDP over the course of the next several months.

Rolling lockdowns in Europe have brought tentative improvements in global risk sentiment, and discussions about lifting restrictions suggest normalcy may be restored to some degree soon.Japan, on the other hand, is facing a one month state of emergency for the seven prefectures which account for around half of Japan’s GDP. How are the markets reacting to these developments, and what indications might there be for the future? Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG, gives his thoughts on this week’s podcast. 
 

As the COVID-19 situation continues to evolve, how will impacts on the U.S. real economy stack up against previous events? On the eve of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releasing its Employment Situation report for March 2020, John Herrmann, U.S. Rates Strategist for MUFG, discusses the outlook for U.S. payroll, employment, and the consumer economy.

As signs point towards social distancing measures around the world proving to be effective in reducing the spread of COVID-19, what will the lack of a cohesive strategy across the United States mean for the economic outlook globally?
While we’re still some way off from normality, there are reasons to be positive in the not-too-distant future, according to Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities.

In a special edition of the MUFG FX Weekly Podcast, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, gives an overview of the global markets as they tackle the economic sinkhole which is Covid-19.
He discusses whether there may be a turning point for certain European economies on the horizon, central bank responses and the outlook for Asia. 

The Fed has acted decisively. Will it be enough?
Listen to the podcast to hear Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, provide his insight on how the Central Banks are responding to the threat of Coronavirus and what might come next.

Fears over the economic disruption of coronavirus are intensifying, and central banks such as the Fed, BoC and RBA have all taken a proactive approach by lowering rates. The European Central Bank must decide this week if it will, or even can, match the Fed’s aggressive response?
Click to listen to Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG, give his outlook for the week ahead.

There is only one topic on the table when it comes to markets. This week on the podcast, Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG, gives his take as the spread of coronavirus brings an intensification of global growth fears, prompting market participants to price in a higher probability of a recession.
In the US, which candidate will take the lead in Super Tuesday, and what impact will this have on USD? 

Covid-19 has got the FX markets concerned, but equity markets are remaining remarkably resilient, with bond markets rallying and yields falling. Despite this spike in JPY/USD, listen to the podcast to hear Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, provide his insight on why he feels the yen won’t lose its safe haven status anytime soon and the future of equity market buoyancy.

Shockingly weak Industrial Production data, the worst plunge since the Global Financial Crisis, is painting a grim macro backdrop for Germany. On the podcast this week, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities,  gives his thoughts on what this means for the EUR, and also looks at the future of oil-related FX since the breakout of Coronavirus caused a substantial drop in prices.

2019 saw the green loans and bonds market grow by over 50 per cent - and 2020 is set to be another momentous year.
In this special podcast episode, Head of Green Loans and Bonds Geraint Thomas gives his insights into what we should look out for in the year ahead.
With more than USD 250bn of issuance in 2019, will this figure continue to grow? Will the green bonds and loans market be driven by investors or issuers? Meanwhile, a sustainable linked bond structure has investors talking – could this potentially be a new area for the market?