The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Does 2022 signal the end of the best days for the USD? The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, discusses the main drivers of the FX market in 2022 and looks ahead to next year. Will the USD be able to hold on to this year’s gains? 
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A Christmas Cracker from the BoJ: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

In the final full week of trading of the year, the BoJ surprised the market with a change in policy. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, discusses with Simon Mayes, Director of MUFG’s Global Customer Marketing Group for EMEA in London, the implications of the BoJ’s announcement for monetary policy and the yen in 2023.
Derek also looks ahead to Q1 and what might be in store for the US dollar. At the end of the year, Derek also looks back at the trade recommendations over the year.
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ECB steals the Fed’s thunder: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

A busy week of central bank policy meetings before the end of the year saw the ECB steal the Federal Reserve’s thunder by providing a far more hawkish communication than expected. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, discusses with Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, what the rates and FX implications will be following the FOMC and ECB meetings.
Derek also looks ahead to the BoJ policy meeting next week and assesses the prospect of a change in the Yield Curve Control policy and implications for the yen.
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Year-end Wrap-up and 2023 Prepayment Outlook: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy Glenn Schultz wraps up 2022 prepayment and reviews our major themes for the year and how they played out versus our expectations. Looking forward into 2023, Glenn discusses the outlook for prepayment, along with the PO value of the discount agency MBS sector and its place in investor portfolios. 
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December FOMC Preview: Easier FCI = Conundrum 2.0?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In this episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves walks us through what we collectively observed from the second weak inflation print in a row, and what to expect ahead on that front. George views the markets have this tendency to pull forward returns, and the latest price action is emblematic of such performance. Finally, George gives his base case on what to look for at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Bottom line, although with each subsequent FOMC meeting we are getting closer to the end of the hiking cycle, we do not expect chair Powell to signal as such.
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What Japanese life insurance company sales of foreign bonds and increased currency hedging ratios mean for domestic Japanese bonds and cross-currency basis: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Dollar/Yen has rebounded from the lows while super long term JGBs have been volatile. The front end of the USDJPY basis curve continues to tighten while the long end has widened. The Kishida Administration has announced tax hikes and a bigger defense budget, which could increase volatility in the JGB market. Japanese investors also face challenges with managing their JGB and USDJPY positions ahead of year-end.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews Japanese lifers first half fiscal year 2022 earnings and connects them to October securities flow data. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
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Important week ahead for USD and Fed policy pivot optimism: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Shan Husain, Vice President, FI FX Sales, discuss how the busy economic calendar in the week ahead could prove pivotal for FX market performance through the rest of this year.
Will the latest US CPI report and FOMC meetings shake up financial markets?
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Are Russian oil sanctions a gamechanger for global energy markets? The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Global oil markets are standing on the brink of a profound restructuring. After months of deliberations, Europe’s boycott of all Russian seaborne crude oil began on 5 December, accompanied by the G7’s price cap of USD60 per barrel on Russian oil. With Russian oil accounting for 10% of Europe’s total imports – to the tune of some 1.2 million barrels per day – the boycott is unprecedented in scale and scope.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), contextualises what the recent sanctions on Russian crude oil signal for global energy markets and what we have learned nearly one week on into its implementation.
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The year in review for Yen rate and cross-currency basis and what to watch for in 2023: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

JGB yields have been little changed as of late, while in contrast, spot Dollar/Yen has fallen sharply, and Yen cross-currency basis has tightened off the wides. Japanese investors have been unloading their foreign bond holdings, while demand for JPY bond asset swaps has been strong among foreigners, which has caused price action into the end of the year to be a little unusual.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews 2022 and gives his outlook for 2023, including changes in JGB issuance. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
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Will USD selling momentum fade? The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

The week is closing out with some modest US dollar strength after further selling this week fuelled by Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Wednesday. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, discusses with Chris de Sibert, Head of Institutional Investors FX Sales for EMEA, the implications of Powell’s speech for the dollar going forward.
Derek also discusses the seasonal bias for EUR/USD in December and looks ahead to next week when the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada will kick-start a busy month of central bank policy meetings.
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