The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Implications of the FIFA 2022 World Cup on the Middle East: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

The 2022 FIFA World Cup that commenced on 20 November is expected to attract billions of viewers worldwide and will bring an additional 1.5m visitors into the hosts Qatar through more than 500 shuttle flights a day. It will have wide-reaching implications for the Middle East both during the tournament as well as for its legacy once it is concluded on 18 December.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), discusses what the FIFA World Cup means for the region and explores the potential implications across 10 key sectors.
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U.S. Fixed Income – How long can a range bound market last?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves reviews the recent price action as November comes to a close. Markets have been relatively tame in the last few weeks versus what has been characterized as a volatile environment for the majority of 2022. George thinks that the tranquility in markets won’t last much longer, at least for the first half of December. George discusses the key events that lie ahead as we look to wrap up this tough year for markets. The risk for illiquidity are high as investors potentially fine tune portfolios and asset allocations. 
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If Japanese investors sold a remarkable amount of U.S. Treasuries in September, why is cross-currency basis snapping tighter only now?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Dollar/Yen has started to trend downward, trading on either side of the 140-mark. JGB yields have been stable thanks to the Bank of Japan’s yield control operations, while cross-currency basis has tightened amidst foreigners' asset swap buying and Japanese investors' foreign bond selling. It is unusual for Dollar/Yen basis to tighten significantly ahead of year end, but 2022 has been an unusual year in many respects and basis is no exception.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the September USTIC and October JSDA, along with MoF investing flows data. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
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Is the coast clear for a sustained USD sell off? The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Matthieu Gloux, Head of MUFG’s Global Client Sales for EMEA, discuss the USD’s latest sell-off ahead of a keynote speech from Fed Chair Powell in the week ahead.
Will the return of COVID risks in China provide much needed support for the USD?
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ESG Series: COP27 outcomes – Principles, policies, politics: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), discusses MUFG’s latest ESG publication, titled, “COP27 outcomes – Principles, policies, politics” (read it here). The report aims to offer corporates and investors a comprehensive breakdown of COP27 deliberations that concluded on 20th November, and what the next steps look like.
Ehsan believes that COP27 did little to accelerate the speed of transition at a global political level, leaving ambition and action to take place at COP28 in the UAE in November 2023. After drawing to a close 39 hours late (the second-longest COP in history), many contentious matters, notably around language limiting fossil fuels, were left for future climate talks. Succinctly, faint contours of progress – not balanced – were achieved.
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UK books in order but no cause for celebration for GBP: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

The focus in the FX markets toward the end of the week was on the Pound after the Autumn Statement. Did the new government do enough to reverse the recent loss of credibility? Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, discusses with Simon Mayes, Director of MUFG’s Global Customer Marketing Group for EMEA in London, the implications of the Autumn Statement for BoE monetary policy and the Pound.
Derek also discusses the early ECB Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO) repayment and looks ahead to the Riksbank and RBNZ policy meetings next week.
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Has COP27 been a success? The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

With COP27 drawing to a close on 18th November, there are no clear signs of how it is going to conclude. The main negotiations (“blue zone”) have largely been as expected, with developed and emerging markets mostly taking their anticipated sides over key issues. The side events (“green zone”) have made progress but have not transformed pathways, especially given that many initiatives from last year’s COP26 have not been followed through.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research (EMEA) offers what markets can interpret from COP27 and whether what transpires as the final communique will lead to an acceleration in the energy transition and safeguarding energy security.
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U.S. Fixed Income – Time to dollar-cost-average in?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves discusses the recent price action around the CPI and PPI readings and puts that into context relative to the latest thinking on the Fed. George says we should take the Fed at face value until they decide to signal or officially offer forward guidance on policy objectives. That means that it’s still premature to suggest they are about to pause, and with USTs still sub where the Fed may still end up pushing up rates, George suggests that buying dips and potentially dollar-cost-averaging into fixed income is still the prudent course of action. Meanwhile, George does not think the bond market will take out all of the 2023 rate hikes – at least not between now and year-end – until the Fed gives more forward guidance.
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Do Japanese banks and lifer foreign bond selling provide opportunities for bond and basis arbitrage in the Tokyo market?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Dollar/Yen and Yen rate have fallen from the highs while cross-currency basis has tightened and the Nikkei Average continues to recover. The front end of the JGB yield curve stabilized after the government announced it will increase issuance of JGBs to fund Prime Minister Kishida’s second supplementary budget. Separately, Japanese bank and life insurance companies are releasing their H1 FY22 earnings results, which include details of losses incurred on foreign bond holdings in the recent global bond market rout.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews cross border security investment flows during September and October and sets forth his outlook for the month of November. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
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Peak inflation view reinforces USD selling with potentially more to come: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

After a drop of over 5% for the US dollar this week, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, talks with Michael Owen, MUFG’s Head of Global Client desk for EMEA in London, about the primary driver of the move – the weak US inflation data, and what this means for the US dollar. Might we have seen the ‘three peaks’ for inflation, rates and the US dollar?
Derek also looks ahead to the UK budget announcement on 17th November and the implications for the Pound.
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