The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

What do the September BoJ meeting and Tankan survey tell us about the outlook for Yen assets across markets?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Spot Dollar/Yen has consolidated below 145 after the Japanese Government intervened to buy Yen for the first time since 1998, while Yen rate and basis have been little changed. Going forward an extraordinary session of the Diet is scheduled to convene this month, and we expect the Kishida Administration to announce inflation countermeasures, as well as a second supplementary budget.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the September BoJ meeting, Tankan survey, and his outlook for Yen assets across markets for the month of October. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
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What is next for the plummeting pound? The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Another week of wild swings in the financial markets saw the UK take centre-stage. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, provides Shan Husain, Vice President, FI FX Sales, with a view on what might happen next for the pound. A renewed decline seems plausible - especially given the likely continuation of tightening financial conditions globally.
Derek also discusses JPY moves with USD/JPY rebounding notably from the post-intervention lows.
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Is Germany’s EUR 200bn gas price caps a game changer in the energy affordability crisis? The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

With a deep recession looming, Germany’s government has announced a EUR 200bn gas price cap to support corporates and households to contain the energy affordability crisis. This may soften the coming recession but poses unprecedented risks.
Whilst precise details are yet to announced, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), believes that from a energy markets perspective, gas price caps are not a solution without a corresponding cap on the demand-side of the equation. As such, he views that the measures might at best limit, and at worst reduce, the gas demand destruction needed to rebalance the extremely tight market.

Will intervention be the JPY game changer? The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

It has been another volatile week in the FX market as the USD has surged to fresh year-to-date highs. Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Director of MUFG’s Global Customer Marketing Group for EMEA in London, discuss the main drivers of further USD strength and whether intervention from Japan will prevent further upside for USD/JPY.
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Commodities, carbon and the cost-of-living crisis: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), shares his highlights from this latest commodities research report, wherein he believes that despite the recent easing in commodity prices, the energy and food crises are not being resolved. That is, recessions driven by high prices are not long-term solutions to the permanent structural challenges facing commodities. Ehsan believes that the commodities supercycle is only in its first innings.
Why? The permanency of the dynamics surrounding deglobalisation, decarbonisation, the structural rise in demand induced by government policies around redistribution and the reduction in capital availability given structural underinvestments in commodity supply capacity over the years will resurface as soon as demand recovers once again. Click here for the full report. (PDF)
 
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September FOMC Preview – Hawkish mood continues even if the Fed meets market expectation: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves provides an update on his latest views post the recent volatility in markets. George believes the gap between rate expectations and risk assets are closing. Post the hotter than expected CPI print, the Fed is not going to pivot any time soon as many initially were hoping. George provides his base case for the September FOMC with expectations of another 75bp hike higher in rates, the third in a row, along with higher dots, too. George expects Chair Powell to deliver a message that is consistent with his speech from Jackson Hole, which was hawkish.
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Bank of Japan to leave ultra-loose monetary policy in place as the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to tighten policy aggressively: Th MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Dollar/Yen is now trading in a narrow range below 145 ahead of the FOMC and BoJ September meetings. Yen rate and basis have paused after rising and widening, but we expect volatility to pick up once the BoJ meeting is over.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects the impact of Yen money supply/demand as well as inflationary pressures ahead of the BoJ’s meeting. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
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Markets brace for JPY intervention: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

The financial markets are braced for a busy week next week, with six G10 central bank meetings, and all are expected to hike rates apart from the BoJ. This week, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, discusses with Chris de Sibert, Head of Institutional Investors FX Sales for EMEA, the threat of JPY intervention after comments from Tokyo this week and ahead of the BoJ meeting next week.
Derek also covers some of the other central bank meetings next week, including the Federal Reserve, and what to expect in the foreign exchange markets.
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What Fed hikes and a stronger US dollar means for EM default risks: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Red-hot inflation, aggressive interest rate hikes and a surging US dollar are reminiscent of the early 1980s – a decade that brought a wave of emerging market sovereign debt crises. This year has already witnessed Russia’s first in a century external default, coming hard on the heels of Sri Lanka’s liquidity crisis with its failure to meet its payments on its US dollar bonds. The risk of broader contagion is alarming markets.  
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), examines the risks across emerging markets and highlights which sovereigns are most susceptible to the current challenging global operating environment.
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The party guest that refuses to leave long after the party has ended: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In this episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy Glenn Schultz discusses the August remittance data and shares his views on turnover and refinancing activity in the moderately seasoned cohorts, valuation across the agency MBS coupon stack, specified pool sectors, and CMOs.
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