The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

US recession fears take some of the shine off the USD: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Michael Owen, MUFG’s Head of Global Client desk for EMEA in London, discuss the recent correction lower for the USD. Has the USD reached a bearish turning point?
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From Russia Without Gas: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Russia’s game of pipeline poker continues to keep Europe on edge. European natural gas (TTF) prices are on a tear and are re-testing record highs as Russia further weaponises supply by suppressing flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to a fraction of capacity (20% run rate) in response to sanctions.
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), contextualises the state of affairs, with his base case that Nord Stream 1 flows are restored back to a 40% run rate once a repaired turbine that is under maintenance is in place. He believes that could see TTF prices balloon to average EUR180/MWh this quarter. Critically, that could help take EU gas storage levels to its targeted 90% level by end of October through government-driven efficiency measures as well as price-driven industrial demand destruction.
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July FOMC Preview: Too soon to pivot: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves provides an update on his latest views. George believes that market participants are in a tug-of-war on the inflation versus recession debate and are hoping that central banks will start to pivot their focus to recession risks versus inflation. Even if that is what will ultimately happen, George feels that it’s too soon for that to be the prevailing theme because the Fed is only now getting toward neutral levels of rates.
Listen to the podcast to hear George's base case for the upcoming July FOMC with expectations of one more 75bp hike in rates with chair Powell delivering a neutral message.
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BoJ versus bond market vigilantes…round two: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

So far in July, USDJPY, the 10Yr JGB yield, and the Nikkei Average have all stayed in a flat range, while JPY basis has remained wide. With the risk of a global economic slowdown being questioned, developments in G10 bond markets have impacted Japanese investors’ overseas bond flows, while foreign investor behavior in the JGB market is also being affected.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses his July outlook for JPY cross assets and Japanese investor behavior based on the June Tankan survey, and reviews BoJ and MoF money flow data for June. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
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Will the UK political drama prove a game changer for the pound? The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

It has been a dramatic week at Westminster, culminating in Boris Johnson resigning as Prime Minister. Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Director of MUFG’s Global Customer Marketing Group for EMEA in London, discuss implications for the pound, and what’s behind the USD’s renewed upward momentum.
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Are the best days over for the USD rally? The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

The USD has corrected lower over the past week alongside lower US yields and a rebound in global equity markets. Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Director of MUFG’s Global Customer Marketing Group for EMEA in London, discuss whether the best days are over for the USD rally ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.
They also look at implications for the EUR from this week’s ECB’s policy update.
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The Bank of Japan considers monetary policy with import prices up 46.3% YoY but consumer prices only up 2.5% YoY - The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Japan remains in mourning after the shock of former Prime Minister Abe’s shooting. Recently USDJPY made new highs and JPY basis widened slightly while 10Yr JGB yield has stayed just below the upper band of the BoJ’s target. Despite the depreciation of the Yen exporter operations have not strengthened because of supply chain constrictions, while the impact on import prices has been significant. The culprit behind the rise in USDJPY has been net imports in the resource account while foreigners’ Yen short positions have not changed much.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido shares his views ahead of the Bank of Japan’s July meeting. He also discusses inflation in Japan and shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
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Implications of the largest US Treasury curve inversion since 2000: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

With EUR/USD breaching parity this week and the Fed expected to maintain its hawkish stance given stubbornly high inflation, the 2s10s US Treasury curve has inverted further. This week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, discusses with Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, the implications for the US dollar in periods of curve inversion.
Derek also looks ahead to the ECB meeting next week and addresses a client question on the possibility of the G20 turning its attention to curtailing US dollar strength.
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Mid-summer stretch June Prepayment, U.S. Housing, Agency MBS Issuance, and the Mortgage Basis Outlook: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In this episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy Glenn Schultz discusses recent prepayment data and shares his views on valuation across the agency MBS coupon stack. He also reviews the recent slowdown in the U.S. housing market and the outlook for the housing market against the backdrop of a higher 30-year mortgage rate. Finally, Glenn takes listeners through the outlook for agency MBS issuance for the second half of the year and the mortgage basis.
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U.S. Macro update – All about the elusive inflation peak: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In today’s podcast, we mark-to-market the latest macro developments in the U.S. and recent price action, as well as briefly review some of the inflation concepts covered in our recent monthly strategy report. 
We also touch upon what to expect from markets post the June CPI report. In our view, if the inflation report does not show any signs of price increases slowing, then a high reading may trigger a more lasting risk-off as investors potentially throw in the towel on inflation moderating.
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