The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Wild swings in FX markets: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Following the FOMC and BoE meetings this week, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, discusses the implications for the dollar and the pound going forward with Chris de Sibert, Head of Institutional Investors FX Sales for EMEA.
Will the large swings for the US dollar continue and what do the grim forecasts from the BoE mean for monetary tightening and the pound going forward?
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MUFG May FOMC Preview: Double-tightening to begin with 50bps and QT: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves discusses his FOMC preview for the upcoming May meeting. George believes the Fed cannot flip to dovish this soon, and thus this meeting will likely come across as hawkish as they announce QT and lift rates by 50bps, the first time since 2000.
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FX markets adjusting to a period of exceptional USD strength: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Michael Owen, MUFG’s Head of Global Client desk for EMEA in London, discuss why the USD has surged to multi-decade highs. Will next week’s FOMC meeting affect the USD’s bullish momentum?
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Russian demand for rouble gas payments causes first shutdowns in Poland and Bulgaria: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Russia is making good on a threat to cut off gas flows to “unfriendly countries” that refuse to pay for the fuel in roubles. On 26 April, Russia’s Gazprom informed Poland and Bulgaria’s state gas companies, PGNiG and Bulgargaz, that it would halt gas supplies commencing Wednesday (27 April) following their refusal to comply with its demands.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), believes that whilst this development is not an immediate systemic threat, it is a major turning point for European gas markets, with a key concern now whether Russia will escalate further by cutting supplies to other European countries.
What is clear is that this major escalation will keep European gas prices supported, with spillovers into the Asian market given Europe will have to increasingly compete with Asia for flexible LNG supply, keeping Asian spot LNG prices bid.
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Exploring the interplay of FCI and rates: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves provides an update on what has driven rates higher over the course of April. He also refreshes his view on the interplay of financial conditions, Fed’s QT, and how high short rates can ultimately go in the coming quarters.
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A preview of the April BoJ policy meeting: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

The BoJ has given notice of consecutive fixed-rate fund purchase operations and prevented Yen rates from rising before the April Monetary Policy Meeting. Spot Dollar Yen has risen significantly, but volatility in both the Nikkei Average and Yen basis has been fairly limited.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido previews the April BoJ monetary policy board meeting. He also shares his outlook for Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis ahead of Japan’s “Golden Week” holiday.
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Tumultuous FX markets consider central bank intervention: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

With USD/JPY hitting the highest level since 2002, it has been another tumultuous week in the FX markets. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, discusses the ongoing turmoil with Simon Mayes, Director of MUFG’s Global Customer Marketing Group for EMEA in London, breaking down vital market issues like the prospect for joint intervention by Japan and the US to stem yen weakness.
The Bank of Japan policy meeting on April 28 could be key in any FX intervention response. Derek also covers the outlook for the pound after the plunge in GBP/USD and updates listeners on MUFG’s trade views.
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Stagflation trepidation is accelerating across emerging markets: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Expectations for emerging markets were already downbeat at the start of year, centred on stagflation trepidation. However, four months into 2022 and the outturn has been much worse than anticipated. Extensive negative supply-side disruptions, the war in Ukraine, rising commodity prices and a less supportive global liquidity backdrop have markedly deteriorated the EM inflation-growth trade-off.
A drawn-out inflation challenge with more rate hikes, tighter financial conditions and higher borrowing costs leaves a precarious outlook for emerging markets. Ehsan Khoman, Head of Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), advocates that such an environment favours a bottom-up selection process to differentiate outperformers.
Listen in to this week’s podcast as Ehsan elaborates which emerging markets offer the best risk-reward opportunities at the current juncture.
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What it means to invest in our planet: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In today’s episode, Leanne Rakowitz, MUFG Head of ESG Coverage in the Americas, and Amanda Kavanaugh, MUFG Head of Sustainable Finance in the Americas, discuss the importance of this year’s Earth Day theme “invest in our planet,” the global sustainability progress they’ve seen over the past year, and how evolving regulatory activity, trends, and investor interest will impact the market in the year ahead.   
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Japanese investors reshuffle U.S. bond and Japanese stock positions with implications for Yen basis arbitrage: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

The Yen continues to weaken. In contrast, the Nikkei, Yen rate, and Yen basis have been relatively flat. Finance Minister Suzuki has shown concern for Yen weakening, while Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda appears to be more positive.  
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects U.S. bond investing flows based on the February USTIC data and discusses the attributes of Japan stock investing flows as reflected by JPX data and what to expect from the Kishida administration. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
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