The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Fresh highs for USD as Fed moves fast: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

The USD has hit fresh highs over the past week driven by the Fed’s plans for faster policy tightening and building downside risks to growth outside of the U.S.
Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Michael Owen, MUFG’s Head of Global Client desk for EMEA in London, discuss whether the USD’s bullish trend is set to continue, and implications from recent central bank policy updates, including BoC, ECB and RBNZ.
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What does Japanese and foreign investor selling of overseas investments in March mean for April?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

JPY has weakened thus far in FY22. JPY rates have remained high even under the watchful eye of the Bank of Japan and its YCC operations. The Nikkei Average has moved little. U.S. Fed officials have issued comments on rate hikes and quantitative tightening, but the BoJ leadership has not made any changes to monetary policy in response. The stances of U.S. and Japanese monetary policy officials are in stark contrast for now  ahead of the U.S. November mid-term elections and the Japanese July Upper House elections.  
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects March securities investing flows, the balance between the MoF’s FY22 JGB issuance plans and the BoJ’s JGB buying plans, and the BoJ’s yield control tools. He also shares his views across Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis markets.
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USD continues to strengthen as choppy markets look to central banks and French election: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

After a US dollar advance of over 1% this week, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, discusses with Matthieu Gloux, Head of Global Client Sales EMEA, whether this US dollar strength will persist.
Then there is Federal Reserve balance sheet shrinkage plans, the first round of the French presidential election on Sunday and the ECB policy meeting on April 14 - how will these impact FX markets going forward? Listen to hear Derek’s analysis.
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Revising up our oil price call – maximum pain in Q3-22 with Brent above USD140/b: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has introduced a risk premium in oil prices that is likely to remain embedded in markets for months.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), believes that barring a breakthrough in peace negotiations, the price-induced demand destruction – the only practical mechanism currently available in a world devoid of inventory buffers and supply elasticity – necessary to reduce consumption is set to become widespread by the third quarter, with a corresponding Brent crude oil price above USD140 per barrel. He believes this is the maximum pain level that could jolt corporate activity, squeeze private consumption and ultimately begin to ease the market’s severe tightness.
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The End of the Post Cold War Era: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In today’s episode, Hailey Orr, MUFG Capital Markets Strategist, discusses her team’s new publication and implications for the global economy and markets. 
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Japan’s new year starting with more Fed fireworks?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves shares some of his observations from public data (such as TIC and MOF data) on how investment flows historically have looked in and out of Japan for U.S. assets at the start of their fiscal new year (which just started in April). George also commented on recent Fed speeches that are mentioning that the Fed’s balance-sheet is poised to shrink much more quickly this time around, all of this happening ahead of the March FOMC minutes release. George ties all these developments to his macro views.
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JPY Cross asset review for the month of March plus triggers for the month of April: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

USDJPY has retreated to the 122 level, and the 10Yr JGB yield is back to the 0.21% level after hitting 125 & 0.25%, respectively. USDJPY basis is off the wides. The Nikkei Average is treading water just under the 28,000 mark despite the reorganization that took effect this month.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews JPY asset pricing and flows in March, looks ahead to April JPY triggers, and discusses the key points of the March Tankan survey. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
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French presidential election, energy supply turmoil and April outlook: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Today marks the start of Q2 and the release of the April MUFG Foreign Exchange Outlook publication. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, discusses changes to views and forecasts with Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA.
Derek also provides an update on energy supplies into Europe after Russia’s decree for natural gas payments to be made in rouble and what to expect from the French presidential election on April 10.
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Macro scenarios update and curve reviews post Fed’s first hike: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves reviews his recently published macro thematic report on our latest views for the U.S. outlook in the next 18 months as well as a review of markets in and out of the first hike in this cycle. George feels that the rates market is operating to a “back to the future” tightening cycle that has fast-forwarded all the Fed hikes into and out of the Fed’s first move. This has led to a cascading of curve flattening (with a number of curve spreads going inverted in the process) as the market is skeptical the Fed will get far.
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How many unlimited fixed-rate JGB buying operations will it take for the BoJ to keep JGB yields ”around zero percent”?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

The Nikkei Average, USDJPY, and JPY rates are all up, while the front end of the JPY basis curve has widened. Real demand for resources has caused JPY to weaken ahead of the fiscal year-end, and the Kishida Administration has unveiled inflation countermeasures. On Monday, March 28, the Bank of Japan announced multiple fixed-rate JGB buying operations to cap 10Yr JGB yields at 0.25%.In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects the BoJ's fixed rate JGB buying operations and JPY cross-asset flows in February. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.
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