The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

US 2025 Outlook: A Balancing Act (Podcast Version)

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, summarizes our key themes that will impact the US macro and market landscape in 2025. We focus on what are the potential US economic scenarios ahead, how to think about “Trump 2.0” and what will be the role of the Fed in 2025.  We conclude by reviewing our base-case versus bull/bear scenarios for US fixed income.

US Dollar Projections Post-FOMC: Discussions on Trump Policies, BoJ and the outlook for the Yen

In this final MUFG Global Markets Week Ahead podcast of 2024, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade UK, Ireland & Swiss Corporate Sales about the US dollar following the final FOMC meeting of the year on Wednesday and about the outlook for the dollar as we approach the beginning of 2025. Derek and Jack cover Trump policies, his ability to trigger US dollar depreciation, the BoJ and the outlook for the yen.
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Asia FX 2025 Outlook Podcast Series #4: How will ASEAN FX perform?

Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the growth and FX implications on ASEAN economies in 2025 under a second Trump presidency.
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Asia FX 2025 Outlook Podcast Series #3: Outperformers and Vietnam as microcosm of China+1

Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with MUFG Global Markets Research Asia discusses two key themes, the possible outperformers, PHP and INR, and also how Trump 2.0 will likely focus on the Chinese-linked supply chain this time around and thereby impact Vietnam. 
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Asia FX 2025 Outlook Podcast Series #2: The levers to stimulate China's growth

Lin Li, Head of MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, discusses the status of the Chinese economy, the levers to stimulate China's growth in 2025, and implication of Trump’s tariffs on Chinese economy, USD/CNY pair and its ripple effects on Asian peers.
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Asia FX 2025 Outlook Podcast Series #1: Navigating Asia FX markets in Trump 2.0

Lin Li, Head of MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, discusses main themes governing Asia FX movements and the Asia FX outlook for 2025. Lin highlights the possible impact of Trump's trade policies and tariffs on Chinese and Asian economies and Asia FX, as well as implications of Fed's easing cycle and semiconductor cycle.
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Why has the USD strengthened even as the Fed is set to cut rates again next week?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland, Corporate Sales, discuss what has been driving a stronger USD over the past week.Will the policy pledge from China to provide more support for growth help dampen USD strength?   
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Fed to cut. Will the BoJ hike and take the yen stronger?

After the release of the US jobs report for November Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Chris Jakubowski, Head of Hedge Fund FX Institutional Sales about the impact of the jobs report on Fed rate cut expectations and the US dollar. Derek and Chris also discuss the upcoming ECB meeting next week and the impact of BoJ Governor Ueda’s comments this week in a Nikkei interview. Was this interview the BoJ prepping the market for a December rate hike and what would that mean for the yen?
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What’s behind the correction lower for USD/JPY?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss what has been driving USD/JPY lower over the past week. Will the BoJ hike rates before the end of this year?
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From the lame duck session to a new administration, how to think about rates, macro and the Fed ahead

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks us through some of the key topics and our views from the November monthly report, US Macro2Markets Outlook: Markets feel adrift post-election, now what?
George reiterates the house call that the Fed will likely deliver another 25bp cut for 2024, bringing the total to 100bps of cuts for this past year. We think since this is the last 25bp remaining cut, that was part of the September SEP forecast, why skip it. Furthermore, the FOMC minutes were dovish and flagged that market functioning is now in focus (with the Fed thinking about reducing the RRP rate by 5bps) why skip at year-end and create unnecessary volatile during an illiquid period for broader markets. Not to mention skipping now could come off as political since its in their forecasts from before the election outcome. The only way the Fed does not deliver a cut is if the NFP data meaningfully beats expectations and the prior weak reports get revised higher. We are skeptical that the latest NFP report will be strong given that the data collection period was during the election week when the focus was elsewhere for most in the US. And let’s not forget recent labor market trends have been decelerating.  
Further afield we believe the Fed will cut another 75bps in 2025, where we expect them to skip in January after the inauguration, and then cut once per quarter in March, June, and September bringing rates into the upper 3% levels. We note that there are many different possible Fed rate paths once we get past mid-2025, as there are a variety of Trump policies that could alter the economic landscape. If the economy were to weaken and not respond as quickly to Trump’s pro-growth policies, or worse, the tariffs and immigration policies lead to reduced growth, our bias is for the Fed to cut more. We expect the full interest rates curve to steepen, starting in Q1-2025 (with the 2yr reacting to the Fed still in cutting mode) and continue through the end of the year, as the focus shifts to how the US will allocate and fund US Treasury debt. How the US handles the deficit and debt ahead will also be a main focus of the incoming new Treasury Secretary.

US dollar strengthens amid geopolitical risks

The US dollar has had another move stronger this week and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade UK, Ireland, Swiss & ME FX Corporate Sales, about the implications for the FX markets from the increased geopolitical risks this week related to Ukraine. Derek and Jack also discuss the implications of Trump’s cabinet picks and a possible escalation of political risks in France ahead of an S&P ratings announcement on 29th November.
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Post Election Thoughts: Has the Trump Trade run its course?

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, discusses the market implications heading into and out of the recent US presidential election. In George’s view there are a couple schools of thoughts forming on how markets participants are looking to further position for a 2nd Trump administration, one that also has Republicans in power in the Congress as well. In one camp, and the one that has worked thus far, has been the playbook from the 2016 Trump 1.0 election, where financials and the dollar rallied but rates sold off. George suggests that there is more than one path potentially ahead and that it will pay to remain open minded on what may happen to the economy, markets and overall policy.  In George’s views starting points matter and a lot of the Trump 1.0 trade playbook could be priced-in already. Overall, the fear of higher fiscal deficits and a resurgence in inflation could be misplaced if there is an honest effort to seek government efficiency and reduce spending. Lastly, George reminds us that “macro still matters” and that the economy remains very bifurcated and sensitive to financial conditions. The next administration is inheriting a stock market with stretched valuations and an economy that has benefited from government spending. Meanwhile, labor markets have been weakening in the private sector for quarters and that may not change until we get further clarity on how companies react to the changes in government and fiscal policies ahead.

How hard will Asian currencies be hit by the fallout from a second Trump presidency?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst in London talks to Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst in Singapore, about the implications for Asian currencies from a second Trump Presidency.
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What’s next for the USD after the US election?

Donald Trump achieved a decisive victory in the US election. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about the implications for the USD from a second Trump presidency.  
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US election impact on ASEAN

Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the potential growth, monetary policy, and FX implications on ASEAN from a Harris election victory and a Trump election victory. Lloyd also highlights which ASEAN economies and currencies would underperform in an adverse Trump scenario, where 60% US tariff is imposed on all Chinese imports while a 10% blanket tariff is imposed on US imports from all other countries. 
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The US dollar into and beyond the US elections

Following the release of the US jobs report Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, discusses with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland & Swiss Corporate FX Sales about the potential implications ahead of the FOMC next week. Derek also outlines the FX implications on a Harris election victory and a Trump election victory and highlights some polling analysis from NBC News. The discussion also covers the GBP impact following the UK budget this week.
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What's next for the JPY after Japan steps up intervention threat?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss why the JPY has weakened sharply this month. How are the political risks impacting JPY performance? 
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RBI and Indian Rupee amidst US Election Risks

Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, and Japinder Singh, Vice President Treasury Sales, MUFG India discuss key driving factors behind RBI monetary policy decision and INR in the context of US Elections and what that could mean for the Dollar and Fed policy. 
 
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Pricing in a higher Trump risk premium in the USD

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Reza Nasehi, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss what has been driving the strong USD rebound this month and if the USD continue to strengthen ahead of the US election? 
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USD buying momentum may fade from here

USD/JPY continues it's advance toward the 150-level and this week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales about the prospects for USD/JPY in the context of a 60bp jump in 2yr US yields, the upcoming election in both Japan and the US, and the argument that the buying momentum may start to fade at these levels. Derek also looks ahead to the ECB monetary policy meeting next week and possible implications for the euro. 
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Jumbo strong jobs report derails the future of jumbo rate cuts, for now…

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, provides an update to our latest house views on the Fed and US rates forecasts post the solid September NFP jobs report. Even though the team have doubts on the overall quality of the recent NFP reading and that one number does not make a trend. At face value it was a strong report and it will likely result in the Fed cutting at a slower pace. We are now expecting the Fed to deliver a 25bp cuts going forward and tweaked on our longer term rates forecasts. 

What's behind the abrupt reversal of the weaker USD trend?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst and Seiko, Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss why the USD has staged a strong rebound over the past week. Recent developments add to their caution in forecasting further USD downside ahead of the US election. 
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Japan’s political ‘changing of the guard’ and JPY implications

Following the LDP leadership election in Japan today Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Head of Japanese Client FX Sales about what the implications for BoJ monetary policy and the yen after the victory for Shigeru Ishiba. Derek also looks ahead to next week’s US employment report and the Fed and FX implications.
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What is the fall out for the USD & JPY after Fed decides to start easing with a bang?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland, Corporate Sales, discuss the FX market implications from this week’s central bank policy updates. Will the USD continue to weaken after the Fed delivers a larger 50bps rate cut?
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