The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Emerging markets 2025 outlook

The external backdrop for EM has shifted abruptly – the soft-landing pro-risk environment and pricing of non-recessionary Fed cuts has given way to concerns around tariff risks (and the likelihood of retaliatory action), higher-for-longer US rates and a strong US dollar. This sets the stage for a challenging EM backdrop in 2025.
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), discusses MUFG’s emerging markets 2025 outlook which suggests that choppy external headwinds in 2025 puts the onus on EMs to stand on their own feet. Those that rely on solid fundamentals and domestic policy support to deliver performance, are set to lead.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

US 2025 Outlook: A Balancing Act (Podcast Version)

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, summarizes our key themes that will impact the US macro and market landscape in 2025. We focus on what are the potential US economic scenarios ahead, how to think about “Trump 2.0” and what will be the role of the Fed in 2025.  We conclude by reviewing our base-case versus bull/bear scenarios for US fixed income.

Energy 2025 outlook

There is more uncertainty in energy markets heading into 2025 than in any year since the pandemic. Granted, uncertainties around the Ukraine (land) war, Middle East (hot) war and the US presidential elections are past their peaks, but hedging (fat) tail risks are top of mind.
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), discusses MUFG’s Energy 2025 outlook which suggests that an unresolved crude oil surplus and the looming mega-wave of LNG supply in natural gas markets are gravitationally price bearish.
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Commodities 2025 outlook

The commodities complex delivered a near-flat return in 2024, with losses in energy and agriculture offset by gains in (precious and base) metals. Being tactical, as catalogued in our 2024 outlook (see here), to capture selective returns has proven the right strategy.
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), discusses MUFG’s Commodities 2025 outlook which recommends a continuation of a selective bias in 2025 given differentiation in fundamentals across the commodities space.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

US Dollar Projections Post-FOMC: Discussions on Trump Policies, BoJ and the outlook for the Yen

In this final MUFG Global Markets Week Ahead podcast of 2024, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade UK, Ireland & Swiss Corporate Sales about the US dollar following the final FOMC meeting of the year on Wednesday and about the outlook for the dollar as we approach the beginning of 2025. Derek and Jack cover Trump policies, his ability to trigger US dollar depreciation, the BoJ and the outlook for the yen.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

ESG 2025 outlook

Ten years after the landmark Paris Agreement and nearly halfway through what has been called a “decisive decade” for climate change, a divergent gap exists between, what is needed and what has been achieved, in scaling the deployment of decarbonisation technologies.
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), discusses MUFG’s ESG 2025 outlook that delves into three reality checks on the energy transition and three proposed solutions. Understanding these physical challenges can enable corporates and policymakers to navigate where to play offense to capture viable opportunities today, where to anticipate and address bottlenecks, and how best to tackle the most demanding challenges through a blend of innovation and system recalibration.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Asia FX 2025 Outlook Podcast Series #4: How will ASEAN FX perform?

Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the growth and FX implications on ASEAN economies in 2025 under a second Trump presidency.
(Please see link to Disclaimer: Disclaimer - MUFG Research)
 

Asia FX 2025 Outlook Podcast Series #3: Outperformers and Vietnam as microcosm of China+1

Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with MUFG Global Markets Research Asia discusses two key themes, the possible outperformers, PHP and INR, and also how Trump 2.0 will likely focus on the Chinese-linked supply chain this time around and thereby impact Vietnam. 
(Please see link to Disclaimer: Disclaimer - MUFG Research)

Asia FX 2025 Outlook Podcast Series #2: The levers to stimulate China's growth

Lin Li, Head of MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, discusses the status of the Chinese economy, the levers to stimulate China's growth in 2025, and implication of Trump’s tariffs on Chinese economy, USD/CNY pair and its ripple effects on Asian peers.
(Please see link to Disclaimer: Disclaimer - MUFG Research)

Asia FX 2025 Outlook Podcast Series #1: Navigating Asia FX markets in Trump 2.0

Lin Li, Head of MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, discusses main themes governing Asia FX movements and the Asia FX outlook for 2025. Lin highlights the possible impact of Trump's trade policies and tariffs on Chinese and Asian economies and Asia FX, as well as implications of Fed's easing cycle and semiconductor cycle.
(Please see link to Disclaimer: Disclaimer - MUFG Research)