The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas recaps key market themes that have played out in markets during the epic month of April, drawing parallels to other historical market events. Additionally, he touches on fears of dedollarization, weak soft data, the question of when this will finally filter through to the hard data, and how the Fed could deal with slowing economic growth. To cap it off he notes what else to look out for as month end approaches with key labor data, macro data, and corporate earnings continue to roll in and the risks to markets.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about the volatile price action for USD/JPY over the past week.
Will the BoJ’s upcoming policy meeting derail the current downward trend for USD/JPY?
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This week’s Global Markets podcast takes place against a backdrop of financial market turmoil with signs of a building crisis of confidence in US assets. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Chris Jakubowski Head of FI FX Sales about what needs to happen to halt the slide in confidence. There are certain actions that would help but none seems that likely. Derek and Chris also discuss the prospects for JPY and the BoJ’s stance in the midst of increased financial market turmoil.
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George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, walks us through the latest tariff developments and potential implications for the economy and markets. As a reminder, a palooza is informally viewed as a large frenzied event, thus it’s apt to call this latest version a “tariff-palooza” as markets got jolted by the larger than expected and broad-based announcement on “Liberation Day.” Although the approach the administration has taken a tougher stance on fiscal spending and trade negotiations, it is directionally in line with our 2025 Outlook, given all the uncertainty that this latest tariff rounds have had on both investors and corporate America, unless the tariffs are not fully binding and or get negotiated away quickly, the recent volatility has raised our recession risks.
 

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Jack Greenslade of UK, Ireland, Switzerland and Middle East Corporate Sales, discuss the impact of President Trump’s tariff plans for the FX market. Will an escalating trade war lead to further strength for safe haven currencies such as the yen?
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The US dollar is weaker this week against most G10 currencies ahead of the key reciprocal tariff announcement on 2nd April. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Shan Husain Institutional FX Sales EMEA about how the markets are positioned ahead of the announcement and what we can expect in the days and weeks following. Derek suggests financial markets are possibly overly optimistic about the potential impact.
 
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Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the latest policy updates from the Fed, BoJ, BoE. How is heightened uncertainty related to President Trump's policy plans impacting central bank communication?
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George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps what has been driving market volatility as well as where he thinks broader markets may go in the short-run. Additionally, he goes over what to expect at the March FOMC meeting where the Fed likely conveys a neutral message as they are "not in a hurry" to cut rates or get worried about the recent market vol and financial conditions tightening.

The dollar is ending this week on a weaker footing and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Simon Mayes Head of UK, Ireland & Switzerland FX Corporate Sales about the drivers in the FX markets and looks ahead to the numerous central bank meetings taking place on Wednesday and Thursday. Derek hones in on the BoJ and the yen and highlights the key focuses of the BoJ meeting for the markets and how JGB yields are an important influence of JPY direction.
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Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Shan Husain, Institutional FX Sales discuss the impact of the significant policy shift taking place in Germany. Why has the USD failed to strengthen in response to President Trump’s tariffs this week?
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With China's annual Two Sessions meetings underway, Dr. Lin Li, Head of Global Markets Research for Asia, delves into the key takeaways from the Work Report by the National People's Congress for 2025. 

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps our most recent monthly titled – The Ides of March where he highlights analysis on the Senate and House's Budget plans and risks to the fiscal outlook in the budget process. Additionally, George summarizes what to look out for in February's payroll number.  

The US dollar remains weaker on a year-to-date basis on President Trump’s more pragmatic approach to implementing trade tariffs. But that could be about to change. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher Head of Japanese Customer FX Sales about the risks for the US dollar going forward given the imminent threat of tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week and the numerous other tariff plans ahead. Derek also discusses the outlook for the yen on the back of more hawkish rhetoric from the BoJ and the potential for further gains ahead.
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Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales, discuss why USD/JPY has fallen back below the 150.00 level. Will the current trends of a stronger JPY and weaker USD continue?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst in London, and Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst in Singapore, discuss what has been driving FX markets in Asia and Europe at the start of this year. Topics of discussion include: i) the responses from Asia and Europe to Trump’s tariff policies and ii) the upcoming German elections and potential for Ukraine ceasefire agreement.
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George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps last week’s labor data where we received several important revisions to data and models. Additionally, George highlights what to look out for January's CPI report and concludes with what other potential catalysts to watch for.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss how President Trump’s decisions on trade policy have been impacting the FX market this week. Did the BoE’s latest policy update change their outlook for the pound?
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George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, summarizes and recaps our monthly titled Risk-Off Flashpoint (Now in Focus), where in our special topic cover labor market dynamics and demographics. Furthermore, George discusses what to expect from this all-important NFP number on Friday. We conclude with what to look out for before the March Fed meeting and what will be influential for US fixed income.

This week draws to a close with a 25% trade tariff set to be implemented on Canada and Mexico. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade, UK, Ireland, Swiss & ME FX Sales, about the FX implications of Trump going ahead with these tariffs over the weekend. Derek also covers the FX implications of the Fed and ECB meeting this week, looks ahead to the BoE policy meeting next week and discusses the strong performance of the yen and what lies ahead.
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George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, discusses our outlook for the Fed’s first meeting of 2025, in which we believe the Committee should be “defiantly data dependent” and keep rates on hold. We focus on our base case that Powell will deliver a neutral message, but also discuss risks around that view. We conclude with our expectations for how markets will trade in the coming weeks.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and James Roulston, FX Institutional Sales, discuss the outlook for the USD at the start of Trump’s second term. Will the Fed’s policy update trigger another leg lower for the USD in the week ahead?
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At the end of the week Chris Jakubowski, Head of Hedge Fund FX Sales sits down with Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities to discuss the key events in the week ahead and how the FX markets may respond. There are high expectations of Trump announcing trade tariffs under Executive Order along with many other policy announcements that could prompt further US dollar gains. How much further can the dollar advance from here? Are the Gilt market concerns overblown? And will the BoJ deliver another hike as it has suggested this week is likely?
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Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland, Corporate Sales, discuss what has been behind in the sharp sell-off in global bond markets over the past week. How has the FX market been impacted by rising government borrowing costs?
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George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, summarizes our key themes that will impact the US macro and market landscape in 2025. We focus on what are the potential US economic scenarios ahead, how to think about “Trump 2.0” and what will be the role of the Fed in 2025.  We conclude by reviewing our base-case versus bull/bear scenarios for US fixed income.