The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Thoughts ahead of Jackson Hole and into early September

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, puts into context how risk market preferences and a buy the dip mentality has likely led to the bounce from oversold conditions that were present at the early start of August around the adjustments of positioning.  George remains cautious and expects more episodic vol events over the end of summer into early Fall. Meanwhile, George highlights what to watch and what may change chair Powell’s message at Jackson Hole with the jobs data being the driver.

Yen carry on shakier ground

This week has seen a notable rebound in USD/JPY as risk appetite improves. Derek Halpenny, Head OF Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Head of JC FX Sales about the revival of yen selling and whether yen carry can return on a sustainable basis. Derek also looks ahead to next week with the Jackson Hole Symposium a key market risk event.  

Heightened JPY volatility continues over the summer

It has been another volatile week for financial markets. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Head of Japanese Client FX Sales about what has been driving the FX market over the past week after USD/JPY briefly fell back below the 142.00-level. What are the key events to watch out for the week ahead? 
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RBI and INR in the context of Global Volatility

Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, and Japinder Singh, Vice President Treasury Sales, MUFG India discuss key driving factors behind the weakness in INR in the context of significant global market volatility, and also expectations for RBI policy later this week. 
 
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Has the Fed fallen behind the curve?

The Fed decided to leave rates on hold this week but was it a policy mistake? Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about the latest policy updates from the Fed and BoJ and their impact on the FX market. 
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The energy transition’s “shortage of returns”

The limited return on investments (RoI) - rather than the access to capital is increasingly being cited as a leading barrier to scaling the energy transition. To put this into perspective, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research: Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), delves into MUFG’s latest ESG thought leadership report, titled, “Energy transition’s “shortage of returns”. Profitability (not capital) remains a critical barrier to decarbonisation” (read more here) in this week’s podcast.
Ehsan states that one of the most pertinent impediments to inadequate returns from the transition has been higher interest rates. In essence, renewables are fuel-free, but that means almost all of their expenditures are incurred upfront – financed with debt. That makes them more dependent on the cost of finance (which has been rising) than carbon-intensive alternatives. Encouragingly, as interest rates begin to ease, the dynamic reverses, which may likely accelerate the uptake in clean energy.
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July FOMC Preview and navigating summer markets

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, goes over the macro-olympiad of events from central banks to key data releases and concludes by saying that this week could set the tone for the balance of the summer for markets. In terms of the July FOMC meeting, we believe the Fed will need to converge with market expectations in regards to rate cuts. A dovish July FOMC would be consistent with the last 6 prior FOMCs, where rates rally. If that happens it should bring the curve even closer to dis-inverting before they actually cut rates in September. In the meanwhile, there is a lot of time until the September FOMC meeting, where the next focus will NFP, CPI and Jackson Hole in August.

Philippines - Key driving factors for the Philippines Peso

Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, and Karina Ferreras (Kia), Vice President Treasury Sales, MUFG Philippines discuss key driving factors behind the underperformance of the Philippines Peso, the path for BSP policy, and also the risks to watch out for. 
 
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Weaker USD bias through key event risks

The US dollar is closing out this week weaker with a heavy schedule of risk events next week. USD/JPY corrected 10 big figures lower high-to-low in July to date and hence there will be a lot of focus on the BoJ policy decision next week. That will be followed by the FOMC meeting later on Wednesday while the BoE meets on Thursday. The week ends with the US jobs report. Listen to Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA talk to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher Head of Japanese Client FX Sales, about why the US dollar could weaken further through this busy schedule of events and beyond.

Our take on China's Third Plenum, property sector reform and PBoC's surprise cut

Lin Li, Head of Global Markets Research Asia, discussed the main takeaways from the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the direction of property sector reform and the PBoC's surprise policy rates cut on 22 July.
 
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