The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

What’s next for the USD ahead of the Fed’s pivotal policy meeting?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Reza Nasehi, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss how the Fed’s decision to begin cutting rates is likely to impact the USD in the week ahead. Will the Fed play catch up with other major central banks and cut rates more quickly?
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FX Outlook and market pricing for the scale of rate cuts ahead

As the summer lull for the financial markets comes to an end, Derek Halpenny Head of Research Global markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade in Corporate FX Sales about what lies ahead for the major currencies following some key developments in August and ahead of key central bank meetings. Are the financial markets correctly priced for the central bank easing cycles that have already started for some (ECB & BoE for example) and is set to commence for the Fed in September.
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The ghosts of August 2007 and the time has come for rate cuts post Jackson hole

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, reviews the last major macro event that happened this past Friday, the Fed’s Jackson hole symposium. Specifically chair Powell’s opening speech acknowledged that the labor market cooling is unmistakably happening now (and in reality has been in our view for many quarters) and thus the Fed has pivoted to worrying about the jobs picture. As a result, chair Powell said the “time has come” to start adjusting policy rates lower (likely at the September meeting) to help combat further labor market weakness. Given that many of the conditions that have led up to this Fed pivot formed the basis for our house view for the better part of the year, we have not made major changes to our outlook for the Fed, economy, and markets. Prior to the event we already had increased our odds for larger rate cuts, where if the August NFP is weak, the Fed will likely start this easing cycle with 50bps. Meanwhile, this month has felt much longer than the typical August summer, George echoed back to another similarly long and volatile August, the August of 2007. George believes that the conditions are different to back then but the valuation setup is similar in terms of markets that are over-valued and sentiment very complacent. George argues that 2007 taught us to value liquidity and watch out for vol triggers. 

Indonesia Policy and FX outlook

Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week on Indonesia's monetary policy, fiscal policy, and the outlook for the Indonesian Rupiah, following Bank Indonesia's policy meeting and the annual Jackson Hole symposium last week. 
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Powell suggests growing labour market concerns

This week, Derek Halpenny  Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities discusses with Seiko Kataoka-Fisher Head of JC FX Sales, the initial market reaction to the Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Powell. The speech highlighted a new Fed focus on downside labour market risks. After this week’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago Derek provides an update on US politics and how the FX market could be impacted.
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The status of Chinese economy, potential policies and the USDCNY

Lin Li, Head of Global Markets Research Asia, discusses USD/CNY pair’s recent movement and the forecast for next 12 months, the status of Chinese economy, and the potential policy support.
 
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Thoughts ahead of Jackson Hole and into early September

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, puts into context how risk market preferences and a buy the dip mentality has likely led to the bounce from oversold conditions that were present at the early start of August around the adjustments of positioning.  George remains cautious and expects more episodic vol events over the end of summer into early Fall. Meanwhile, George highlights what to watch and what may change chair Powell’s message at Jackson Hole with the jobs data being the driver.

Yen carry on shakier ground

This week has seen a notable rebound in USD/JPY as risk appetite improves. Derek Halpenny, Head OF Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Head of JC FX Sales about the revival of yen selling and whether yen carry can return on a sustainable basis. Derek also looks ahead to next week with the Jackson Hole Symposium a key market risk event.  

Heightened JPY volatility continues over the summer

It has been another volatile week for financial markets. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Head of Japanese Client FX Sales about what has been driving the FX market over the past week after USD/JPY briefly fell back below the 142.00-level. What are the key events to watch out for the week ahead? 
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RBI and INR in the context of Global Volatility

Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, and Japinder Singh, Vice President Treasury Sales, MUFG India discuss key driving factors behind the weakness in INR in the context of significant global market volatility, and also expectations for RBI policy later this week. 
 
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Has the Fed fallen behind the curve?

The Fed decided to leave rates on hold this week but was it a policy mistake? Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about the latest policy updates from the Fed and BoJ and their impact on the FX market. 
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July FOMC Preview and navigating summer markets

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, goes over the macro-olympiad of events from central banks to key data releases and concludes by saying that this week could set the tone for the balance of the summer for markets. In terms of the July FOMC meeting, we believe the Fed will need to converge with market expectations in regards to rate cuts. A dovish July FOMC would be consistent with the last 6 prior FOMCs, where rates rally. If that happens it should bring the curve even closer to dis-inverting before they actually cut rates in September. In the meanwhile, there is a lot of time until the September FOMC meeting, where the next focus will NFP, CPI and Jackson Hole in August.

Philippines - Key driving factors for the Philippines Peso

Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, and Karina Ferreras (Kia), Vice President Treasury Sales, MUFG Philippines discuss key driving factors behind the underperformance of the Philippines Peso, the path for BSP policy, and also the risks to watch out for. 
 
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Weaker USD bias through key event risks

The US dollar is closing out this week weaker with a heavy schedule of risk events next week. USD/JPY corrected 10 big figures lower high-to-low in July to date and hence there will be a lot of focus on the BoJ policy decision next week. That will be followed by the FOMC meeting later on Wednesday while the BoE meets on Thursday. The week ends with the US jobs report. Listen to Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA talk to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher Head of Japanese Client FX Sales, about why the US dollar could weaken further through this busy schedule of events and beyond.

Our take on China's Third Plenum, property sector reform and PBoC's surprise cut

Lin Li, Head of Global Markets Research Asia, discussed the main takeaways from the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the direction of property sector reform and the PBoC's surprise policy rates cut on 22 July.
 
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Has USD/JPY reached a turning point?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss why the JPY has been strengthened sharply over the past week and whether it is likely to extend further. Will the BoC follow the ECB’s lead and leave rates on hold next week?
To hear more, click the image below.
 
 
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Discussing recent events and what to watch before July month-end

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, reviews recent market, macro and political events in the US.  George and team have been focused on the lags of monetary policy, the lags in how long its been taking for sticky inflation to unwind and the data discrepancies in the true health of the US labor market. The latest CPI report showed a better than expected inflation reading, which was a welcome sign and consistent with our house view that the worst on the inflation front is probably over.  We would be remiss in not discussing the market’s reaction to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. Thus far this incident has been met with risk-on in the marketplace with the curve steepening and a major sector rotation in stocks, now being dubbed “Trump Trades.” We caution that a lot may be priced-in to the curve right now. Lastly we cover what to watch for before July month-end with PCE and jobs data revisions our main focus before we speak again ahead of the FOMC.

Has a turning point been reached for Fed policy & USD/JPY? The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Jack Greenslade from the Global Customer Marketing Group, discuss the impact from the FX market from slowing US inflation. Has  a turning point been reached for USD/JPY? 
 
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Exploring the Real “Data” Story and the Upcoming CPI report

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, reviews a recent special topic from the latest Macro2Markets Monthly report, where the team has found that the last few years of higher nominal activity (boosted by higher prices given elevated inflation levels) has made the economy, company earnings, and market performance look better than what they truly are. George concludes by discussing the upcoming CPI report which should continue to point towards lower reading as the disinflationary trends in the economy seem to be on track. The key area that the Macro Strategy team is focusing on is the evolution of shelter costs and is there finally a catch up to more real-time measures of rental prices.

Are conditions falling into place for a weaker USD?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland, Corporate Sales, discuss the FX market implications from the UK and French elections.
Will the USD continue to weaken in the week ahead following the release of the latest NFP report?   
 
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EUR volatility ahead

As we come to the mid-point of the year Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Head of JC FX Sales about MUFG’s forecasts and where the biggest divergences have been relative to expectations at the start of the year.
 
Derek also talks through the scenarios for the French parliamentary elections ahead of the first round election on 30th June and what the implications could be for the euro. The political uncertainty also could be intensifying during a key week of US economic data.
 
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What is driving FX market performance central bank policies or political risk?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Jack Greenslade from the Global Customer Marketing Group, discuss the latest central bank policy updates in Europe. Will the policy updates alter European currency performance ahead of the upcoming French elections? 

Thoughts Post the June Macro Marathon

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, quickly reviews that first two weeks of June, which were macro event intense with various central bank meetings and inflation reports among other things. The more hawkish Fed event led to the strategy team pushing back their first Fed cut view to September from July. George believes the market becomes more technical-driven and less macro-focused into quarter-end.
 

Will the euro continue to weaken ahead of the French elections?

Heightened political uncertainty in France has emerged as important driver of FX market performance over the past week. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about how election risks in France and the UK are impacting the outlook for the FX market alongside the latest policy updates from the BoJ, BoE and Fed.