The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Indonesia Rupiah drops to four year low - What lies ahead?

With the rupiah falling to a four-year low, it's perhaps timely for us to re-assess our short-term outlook for the currency. We also delve into how the long-term appeal of the rupiah has improved, led by EV. 
 
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BoJ looks set to alter policy again

The US jobs data was much stronger than expected today and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, speaks to Shan Husain, Institutional FX Sales about the implications of the data for the dollar and ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.
Derek also discusses the possibility of the BoJ altering its policy on JGB purchases at the meeting next Friday.   
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Who will be the next G10 central banks to begin cutting rates?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Vice President from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss what to expect from next week’s BoC and ECB policy meetings. Will the FX market impact from the policy updates be overshadowed by next week’s NFP report?
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Three Things in India - Elections, RBI and Dividends

Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with Global Markets Research Asia, discuss three key things to watch in India - 1) the upcoming General Elections, 2) RBI policy on 7 June, and 3) the impact of larger than expected dividends from RBI
 
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Not all safe-haven roads lead to the US dollar

This week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities talks to Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, currency analyst, about safe-havens in the FX market.
What determines safe-haven currencies and what other factors need to be considered in anticipating currency performance during a bout of risk-off? Derek argues that while the US dollar is the obvious safe-haven choice in the FX markets there are scenarios when that might not be the case and other currencies could take precedence.
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What’s driving a weaker USD?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Vice President from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss why the USD has been weakening in recent weeks and whether it is likely to extend further.
Will Biden’s decision to impose fresh tariffs on imports from China derail strengthening growth momentum outside of the US? 
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Will shelter inflation catch up to slower rental prices?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, recaps what he has learned from the various trips he has been on while visiting investors and how it compares to our house view. He also goes over his short-term views on inflation ahead of the all-important CPI report. In George’s view, just like the last NFP report captured some of the concerns that have been forming for quarters now (and something we have been flagging), what if shelter cost declines show up now and actually start driving CPI lower, just in time for a Fed that needs greater confidence before thinking about when to ease rates ahead.

BoJ turning hawkish – FX concerns a factor

From the best performing G10 currency last week, the yen has turned and is the worst performer this week. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK Ireland and Switzerland FX Corporate Sales about the shift in tone from BoJ Governor Ueda who turned a lot more hawkish with concerns increasing over yen weakness. Derek also discusses the potential for the BoE cutting rates in June following the MPC meeting this week and the stronger GDP data today.

Has the tide turned for USD/JPY?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Andrea Hayward, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss the fallout from a volatile week for USD/JPY.
What have been the main drivers behind the sharp correction lower for USD/JPY?  
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May FOMC Preview and still worried about macro divergences: The MUFG Global Markets Podcat

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks through what to expect at the May FOMC meeting. We believe that QT will be tapered while the Fed will start to acknowledge that real rates are too restrictive. Our base case is that Chair Powell will say tightening is working, but they are being mindful of the long and variable lags. Also, on the slightly more hawkish side, Chair Powell will likely reiterate that the FOMC lacks confidence on future inflation path and is not ready to commit to the timing on rate cuts. Lastly, George briefly highlights why we are still focused on and worried about the ongoing macro divergences in U.S. economic data and that the economy looks stronger due to fiscal policy.

BoJ policy outlook and why the MoF has not yet intervened

After today’s BoJ policy meeting and the heavy yen selling, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, talks to Chris Jakubowski, Director – Institutional FX Sales, about the BoJ policy outlook ahead following the meeting and the fallout in the FX market with the yen hitting new lows.
Why has the MoF not yet intervened to halt yen selling? Tune in to listen to Chris and Derek’s discussion.
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What are the implications for the FX market from rising geopolitical tensions?

Heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East have been an important driver of the FX market over the past week. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about how geopolitical risks are impacting MUFG’s outlook for the FX market and how the BoJ’s upcoming policy meeting could impact JPY performance in the week ahead.

FX lull ends signalling USD gains ahead

This week saw the FX markets come back to life after a long period of lull with a sharp appreciation of the US dollar. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales about the implications for the US dollar outlook following the US inflation data and the ECB policy announcement. Derek also discusses the JPY intervention prospects next week and beyond and provides an update on MUFG FX Research trading views.

Is the USD poised for a bullish break out?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the recent performance of the USD which has benefitted from the paring back of Fed rate cut expectations.
Will the release of the latest US inflation data for March encourage the Fed to delay rate cuts until 2H of this year?

Latest Fed thoughts and themes from the latest monthly: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks through the ever evolving reaction function from the Fed, where George isn’t terribly concerned about the recent Fed hawkish comments. George feels that this has been standard operating procedure, where the Fed tries to calibrate their message after a FOMC meeting.
What we learned at the March FOMC is still important, the Fed is increasingly focused on their dual-mandate and will react to labor market weakness just as it would to changes for the path for inflation. George also walked through a special topic theme from the latest Macro2Markets Monthly report, the topic being how healthy is the consumer and are there signs of the wealth effect at work post the recent large rally in financial assets. Lastly George gave a mini-NFP preview.

Three Key Takeaways for the FX Markets

At the end of an event-filled week for the financial markets Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities runs through with Shan Husain, Vice President Institutional Investors FX Sales EMEA, the key takeaways for the US dollar and other FX pairs.
Derek also looks ahead to what will be in focus for the markets going forward. Derek also provides an update on MUFG Research trade views.
 
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March FOMC Preview: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, gives us an update on his latest view since his last podcast and highlights what is driving market sentiment and views lately. George then walks us through the March FOMC preview report, focused on what is our base-case and risks around our views into and out of the Fed meeting. George believes Chair Powell will aim to sound neutral as the market has already priced-out a lot of the recent cut expectations and the data trends remain mixed.

How will the BoJ and Fed policy updates impact the FX market?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss how higher US inflation and stronger wage negotiation results in Japan have impacted the FX market over the past week.
Will the BoJ and Fed policy updates in the week ahead prove to be an important turning point for USD/JPY?

Will USD/JPY continue to head lower?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Elizabeth Foster, Research Analyst from the Economic Research Office, discuss what has driven the sharp move lower in USD/JPY over the past week. Will downward momentum for the pair continue ahead of the BoJ’s upcoming policy meeting? 

Will upcoming events spark some revival in FX volatility?

FX volatility has fallen sharply – for some currency pairs to levels not seen since before the Global Financial Crisis.
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher in Japanese Client Sales about events in the week ahead that might shake the FX market out of this volatility lull, including the semi-annual testimony to Congress by Fed Chair Powell and the ECB policy meeting.
Today MUFG Research also releases its monthly Foreign Exchange Outlook and Derek outlines some key highlights, including the prospects of a BoJ rate hike in March.
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Will G10 FX carry trades continue to outperform?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the performance of G10 FX carry trades at the start of this year.
What are the main downside risks for carry trade performance in the near-term?
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Is fading USD momentum signalling a turn?

The US dollar hit its highest level of the year this week and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade in FX Corporate Sales about the FX implications following the US inflation data and GDP data from Europe and Japan. Derek also discusses the return of USD/JPY to the “intervention zone” above the 150-level and whether these levels are sustainable.

The Trouble with Turnover: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, and Glenn Schultz, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, discuss the January 2024 remittance data as well as the 2024 outlook for prepayment and turnover. They also go over how prepayment turnover is likely to evolve in 2024 and how dislocation in demographics is both observed turnover rates, in addition to home price appreciation and its potential implication on monetary policy going forward.

Higher CPI sends Goldilocks a rude reminder: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, discusses the price action since the hawkish FOMC, stronger than expected NFP, hawkish chair Powell 60 minutes interview, and lastly, a higher than expected inflation report. In George’s view the macro and market conditions pre-CPI release were looking too good to be true. George believes that markets were priced for perfection and overdue some level setting after months of nonstop rallying. In the end, the higher CPI sends the Goldilocks crowd a rude reminder that this year will not be a linear progression to a soft-landing outcome, there will be bumps along the way, in our view. This will result in episodic vol.