The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Thoughts Post the June Macro Marathon

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, quickly reviews that first two weeks of June, which were macro event intense with various central bank meetings and inflation reports among other things. The more hawkish Fed event led to the strategy team pushing back their first Fed cut view to September from July. George believes the market becomes more technical-driven and less macro-focused into quarter-end.
 

Will the euro continue to weaken ahead of the French elections?

Heightened political uncertainty in France has emerged as important driver of FX market performance over the past week. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about how election risks in France and the UK are impacting the outlook for the FX market alongside the latest policy updates from the BoJ, BoE and Fed.

ESG implications of the EU election results

Last weekend’s EU elections marked the end of the bloc’s greenest parliament ever with the overall “shift to the right”, though centrist parties still retained the majority.
Whilst the post 2030 climate agenda could be weakened in ambition, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), believes that there is unlikely to be any major overhaul on sustainability, but rather there may be fresh emphasis on integrating economic attractiveness and sovereignty components into the existing European Green Deal, with a focus on regulatory simplification.
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Thoughts ahead of a Macro Double-Header (CPI & June FOMC)

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, gets us caught up on what has been happening in global macro and markets, with a focus on recapping the May NFP jobs report, which he believes wasn’t as strong as the headlines suggested, and that it is another report that demonstrates there are clearly macro divergences forming in various parts of the labor force.
George also provides his thoughts on what to look out for in the CPI report, where we are waiting to see if the shelter costs ever come down enough to pull inflation readings lower. Meanwhile, the CPI report takes place ahead of the June FOMC meeting where we are keenly focused on the dots (interest rate estimates) and the terminal level estimates for the core PCE inflation reading published in the summary of economic projections (SEP) by the Fed. In addition, will Chair Powell sound dovish (and echo some of the same concerns that the strategy team has around the true health of the jobs market) or will Chair Powell be hawkish. Chair Powell has threaded the needle lately with his communications, but if markets deem that his message is hawkish, after a hawkish release of the dots, a major risk-off would be in store.

Indonesia Rupiah drops to four year low - What lies ahead?

With the rupiah falling to a four-year low, it's perhaps timely for us to re-assess our short-term outlook for the currency. We also delve into how the long-term appeal of the rupiah has improved, led by EV. 
 
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BoJ looks set to alter policy again

The US jobs data was much stronger than expected today and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, speaks to Shan Husain, Institutional FX Sales about the implications of the data for the dollar and ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.
Derek also discusses the possibility of the BoJ altering its policy on JGB purchases at the meeting next Friday.   
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Evaluating the IEA's World Energy Investment 2024 report

The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its 2024 iteration of its flagship World Energy Investment (WEI) report this week, with a wealth of insights into the latest investment trends across the global energy landscape that aims to support corporates and investors in assessing risks and opportunities across the energy ecosystem.
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), evaluates the key findings of the WEI 2024 report with specific reference to transition finance tools that are emerging as a promising means to drive more capital into hard-to-abate sectors.
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Who will be the next G10 central banks to begin cutting rates?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Vice President from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss what to expect from next week’s BoC and ECB policy meetings. Will the FX market impact from the policy updates be overshadowed by next week’s NFP report?
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The state of play of power grids - the backbone (and bottleneck) of the energy transition

The power grid – arguably the backbone of the global economy – is the backbone of the energy transition but also its main bottleneck. We are at a critical convergence of the demand ramp-up of an increasingly electrified economy – driven by the rise of electric vehicles, datacentres and artificial intelligence (AI) – and an aging power grid that requires significant upgrading (particularly in a world of more renewable but intermittent energy).
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), delves into the obstacles to grid modernisation and explores potential hardware and software solutions, including the greater use of long duration energy storage, wider applications of demand responses as well as the adoption of automation and AI.
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Three Things in India - Elections, RBI and Dividends

Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with Global Markets Research Asia, discuss three key things to watch in India - 1) the upcoming General Elections, 2) RBI policy on 7 June, and 3) the impact of larger than expected dividends from RBI
 
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