The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Weaker USD bias through key event risks

The US dollar is closing out this week weaker with a heavy schedule of risk events next week. USD/JPY corrected 10 big figures lower high-to-low in July to date and hence there will be a lot of focus on the BoJ policy decision next week. That will be followed by the FOMC meeting later on Wednesday while the BoE meets on Thursday. The week ends with the US jobs report. Listen to Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA talk to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher Head of Japanese Client FX Sales, about why the US dollar could weaken further through this busy schedule of events and beyond.

Our take on China's Third Plenum, property sector reform and PBoC's surprise cut

Lin Li, Head of Global Markets Research Asia, discussed the main takeaways from the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the direction of property sector reform and the PBoC's surprise policy rates cut on 22 July.
 
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Has USD/JPY reached a turning point?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss why the JPY has been strengthened sharply over the past week and whether it is likely to extend further. Will the BoC follow the ECB’s lead and leave rates on hold next week?
To hear more, click the image below.
 
 
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Examining the value proposition of green steel in monetising the Middle East's transition prospects

Steel may exist as a critical product in today’s global economy, but it’s also a significant source of carbon emissions. What kind of a role could green steel play in the path towards net zero?
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), delves into this theme, wherein he discusses why green hydrogen-based steel – a market that already exists in Europe and will likely be made more attractive with the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism – may offer a key route for the monetisation of the Middle East’s unparalleled renewables prospects.
 
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Discussing recent events and what to watch before July month-end

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, reviews recent market, macro and political events in the US.  George and team have been focused on the lags of monetary policy, the lags in how long its been taking for sticky inflation to unwind and the data discrepancies in the true health of the US labor market. The latest CPI report showed a better than expected inflation reading, which was a welcome sign and consistent with our house view that the worst on the inflation front is probably over.  We would be remiss in not discussing the market’s reaction to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. Thus far this incident has been met with risk-on in the marketplace with the curve steepening and a major sector rotation in stocks, now being dubbed “Trump Trades.” We caution that a lot may be priced-in to the curve right now. Lastly we cover what to watch for before July month-end with PCE and jobs data revisions our main focus before we speak again ahead of the FOMC.

Has a turning point been reached for Fed policy & USD/JPY? The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Jack Greenslade from the Global Customer Marketing Group, discuss the impact from the FX market from slowing US inflation. Has  a turning point been reached for USD/JPY? 
 
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Exploring the Real “Data” Story and the Upcoming CPI report

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, reviews a recent special topic from the latest Macro2Markets Monthly report, where the team has found that the last few years of higher nominal activity (boosted by higher prices given elevated inflation levels) has made the economy, company earnings, and market performance look better than what they truly are. George concludes by discussing the upcoming CPI report which should continue to point towards lower reading as the disinflationary trends in the economy seem to be on track. The key area that the Macro Strategy team is focusing on is the evolution of shelter costs and is there finally a catch up to more real-time measures of rental prices.

Are conditions falling into place for a weaker USD?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland, Corporate Sales, discuss the FX market implications from the UK and French elections.
Will the USD continue to weaken in the week ahead following the release of the latest NFP report?   
 
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ESG mid-year outlook

As ESG’s contours and penetration increased in H1 2024, so too did the decibels of debate.
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), contextualises why he believes the louder deliberations and pockets of pushback are still indicative of ESG’s burgeoning relevance and a natural (and necessary) step in its maturation.
Looking ahead, he views biodiversity, regulation and artificial intelligence’s role in catalysing power demand will be key areas of focus in H2 2024. In addition, the ongoing challenges to accelerate decarbonisation signals that climate will remain the anchored priority, which may present new investment opportunities for investors and companies. In this vein, climate finance is set to be the defining issue at COP29 in November 2024, with any failure to reach consensus on the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) limiting the conferences ability to serve as an effective bridge between the successes of COP28 in the UAE and the lead-up to COP30 in Brazil.
 
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EUR volatility ahead

As we come to the mid-point of the year Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Head of JC FX Sales about MUFG’s forecasts and where the biggest divergences have been relative to expectations at the start of the year.
 
Derek also talks through the scenarios for the French parliamentary elections ahead of the first round election on 30th June and what the implications could be for the euro. The political uncertainty also could be intensifying during a key week of US economic data.
 
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