The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Gauging the geopolitical risk premium from heightened animosities in the Middle East

It has been a tense week in the Middle East following the attack on Israel by Iran in the early hours of 14 April.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), contextualises the current level of geopolitical risk premium that is currently priced into global markets, and how this could evolve with the various scenarios that may transpire from the crisis.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

FX lull ends signalling USD gains ahead

This week saw the FX markets come back to life after a long period of lull with a sharp appreciation of the US dollar. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales about the implications for the US dollar outlook following the US inflation data and the ECB policy announcement. Derek also discusses the JPY intervention prospects next week and beyond and provides an update on MUFG FX Research trading views.

Is the USD poised for a bullish break out?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the recent performance of the USD which has benefitted from the paring back of Fed rate cut expectations.
Will the release of the latest US inflation data for March encourage the Fed to delay rate cuts until 2H of this year?

Latest Fed thoughts and themes from the latest monthly: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks through the ever evolving reaction function from the Fed, where George isn’t terribly concerned about the recent Fed hawkish comments. George feels that this has been standard operating procedure, where the Fed tries to calibrate their message after a FOMC meeting.
What we learned at the March FOMC is still important, the Fed is increasingly focused on their dual-mandate and will react to labor market weakness just as it would to changes for the path for inflation. George also walked through a special topic theme from the latest Macro2Markets Monthly report, the topic being how healthy is the consumer and are there signs of the wealth effect at work post the recent large rally in financial assets. Lastly George gave a mini-NFP preview.

Three Key Takeaways for the FX Markets

At the end of an event-filled week for the financial markets Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities runs through with Shan Husain, Vice President Institutional Investors FX Sales EMEA, the key takeaways for the US dollar and other FX pairs.
Derek also looks ahead to what will be in focus for the markets going forward. Derek also provides an update on MUFG Research trade views.
 
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Contextualising the messages from CERAWeek

CERAWeek is arguably one of the most important annual events in the energy calendar. Under the theme of a “multidimensional energy transition”, the energy community is deliberating how best to navigate the “energy trilemma” of (i) affordability; (ii) security; and (iii) sustainability, in harnessing a just-and-orderly transition to net zero.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), contextualises the key messages of what transpired behind the scenes in Houston which mattered just as much as what got said on stage.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

March FOMC Preview: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, gives us an update on his latest view since his last podcast and highlights what is driving market sentiment and views lately. George then walks us through the March FOMC preview report, focused on what is our base-case and risks around our views into and out of the Fed meeting. George believes Chair Powell will aim to sound neutral as the market has already priced-out a lot of the recent cut expectations and the data trends remain mixed.

How will the BoJ and Fed policy updates impact the FX market?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss how higher US inflation and stronger wage negotiation results in Japan have impacted the FX market over the past week.
Will the BoJ and Fed policy updates in the week ahead prove to be an important turning point for USD/JPY?

Will USD/JPY continue to head lower?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Elizabeth Foster, Research Analyst from the Economic Research Office, discuss what has driven the sharp move lower in USD/JPY over the past week. Will downward momentum for the pair continue ahead of the BoJ’s upcoming policy meeting? 

Will upcoming events spark some revival in FX volatility?

FX volatility has fallen sharply – for some currency pairs to levels not seen since before the Global Financial Crisis.
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher in Japanese Client Sales about events in the week ahead that might shake the FX market out of this volatility lull, including the semi-annual testimony to Congress by Fed Chair Powell and the ECB policy meeting.
Today MUFG Research also releases its monthly Foreign Exchange Outlook and Derek outlines some key highlights, including the prospects of a BoJ rate hike in March.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)