The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

The US dollar has recovered some of last week’s losses and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets Research & International Securities talks to Michael Owen Head of Global Client Desk EMEA about what helped prompt a recovery of the US dollar this week.
With no single clear driver of FX and rates this week, Derek looks ahead to next week and the key inflation data from the US and employment and inflation data from the UK. Derek also provides an update on Global Market Research’s trade views.
 
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In today's episode, George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, and Glenn Schultz, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, discuss October's remittance data, relative value against the backdrop of slower seasonal prepayment, and the outlook for the current coupon basis against the headwinds of 2023's never ending conga line of black swan events. 

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Jack Greenslade from the Global Customer Marketing Group, discuss the main drivers behind the sharp adjustment lower for the USD and US yields over the past week.
Have we now passed the peak of US exceptionalism priced into FX markets?  
 
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This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, takes us around the world and back, discussing the latest changes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), ahead of October month-end trading and the critical double-header events on November 1, when the Treasury releases its quarterly refunding announcement (Q.R.A.) for its Treasury supply needs. Then in the afternoon, the FOMC meets for its second to last meeting of calendar year 2023.
In George’s view, so long as term premia stays elevated and 10yr rates do not decline back towards the low 4s, these higher long-term rates are doing the tightening for the Fed, and thus the Fed hiking cycle is likely over (where the July hike may end up being the last hike of this cycle). In addition, what is frightening about October 31, other than the spooky Halloween scenes, is that this means there are only two months left in the year and liquidity probably gets worse for markets from here on out. Lastly, George wraps up by providing his views for Fed day, expecting another “hawkish skip”, the second in a row, and that chair Powell will refrain from saying they are done by keeping December in play.

Swings in the 10yr UST bond yield reverberated into the FX markets this week with the EUR/USD intra-day high-low weekly range the widest since mid-July. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Swiss Corporate Sales, about the continued resilience of EUR/USD and what might be behind it. Derek also looks ahead to next week with the BoJ, FOMC and BoE all meeting and explains why the BoJ needs closest watching after USD/JPY broke higher through 150 this week.
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Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Andrea Hayward, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss how rising Middle East tensions and higher US yields are impacting the FX market. Will the upcoming BoC and ECB policy meetings prove to be market-moving in the week ahead?

This week in a special edition podcast episode, George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, is joined by Glenn Schultz, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, to go over a recently published and comprehensive Desk Strategy Report called “The State of Housing” where they explore the impact of high mortgage rates and affordability issues that are impacting the U.S., as well as the potential lasting effect on housing and mortgage macro fundamentals ahead.
George walks through how these higher rates are unsustainable for a viable housing and mortgage financing market and unless incomes were to rise, and rise at a much faster rate, that something has to give (either house prices decline, and/or rates decline). Glenn threads in the implications to MBS issuance, CPRs, and how the market might be the most negative convexity it has been given the larger loan balances. George wraps things up by discussing how this might influence the Fed rate views and their MBS portfolio.
 

The week is coming to a close with signs of risk aversion with the focus on the Israel conflict and the risk of this broadening in the region. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Michael Owen, MUFG's Head of Global Client Desk for EMEA in London, about the possible consequences for the markets and why recent signs of a pick-up in economic activity in China could prove important for the US dollar.

It has been a more volatile week in the FX market. Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Director of MUFG’s Global Customer Marketing Group for EMEA in London, discuss how the sharp sell-off in the US bond market is spilling over into the FX market.
Will the USD continue to head higher alongside US yields in the week ahead?
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George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks us through the latest price action where the normalization of rates out the curve has finally caught the attention of broader markets like stocks and credit. The so-called bear steepening of the curve (when long-term rates move higher in yields and in a quantum larger than short-term rate movements) is driving some serious financial conditions tightening. As George says, the bond market is tightening for the Fed. George still believes that the last Fed hike was in July and that all of these volatile market moves will result in them no longer hiking in 2023. That said, until long-term rates find stability (and better yet consolidate into a tradeable range) and until the U.S. dollar stops going up, these major swings may continue in his view. In the past, to see a quick reversal in U.S. Treasuries, there would need to be a much larger and deeper risk-off in stocks and credit. Overall George remains cautious and reminds us that it’s been “the same as it ever was”, higher rates do matter.

The US dollar has corrected weaker into the end of the week. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about the factors behind the correction weaker for the dollar and why the government shutdown could reinforce the move over the short-term.
Derek also discusses the latest trade ideas published in the FX Weekly.
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Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst in London, discuss the main takeaways from this week’s G10 central bank policy meetings.
 
Has the case for a stronger USD been reinforced?  

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, returns to review the price action since the summer break and what to expect from the FOMC at the upcoming meeting. George views the current environment as the most challenging for bond bulls, as the longer the Fed stays on hold with all this additional Treasury supply hitting the market, the pull toward higher rates will remain a powerful force. Granted, George does not believe that the window that will be afforded to the Fed staying “higher for longer” will be one that is long enough to fully normalize the yield curve towards the current level of Fed funds (because we expect the policy lags to hit the economy hard in Q4 into 1Q24). That said, the Fed can still use forward guidance signals, such as keeping their rate forecast “dot-plot” higher as a counter-balance to a bond market that is always looking for the next reason to rally. In terms of the FOMC meeting, we expect a slightly hawkish outcome, where the dots will try to pave the way for the Fed to signal they want rates to stay higher. Lastly we expect no change in actual Fed rate policy, a hawkish skip (i.e. no hike at this meeting) is our base-case.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Andrea Hayward, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss what has been behind a volatile week for the USD.
They also discuss how the latest central bank updates from the BoE, BoJ and Fed in the week ahead are likely to impact the FX market.  

In this month’s episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, Glenn Schultz, discusses August's prepayment data and answers the question of whether the Spring/Summer selling season prepayment data indicate a structural shift in the agency MBS market back to the “old normal”. He also addresses the question “Who is going to buy Agency MBS?” and how issuance will influence the agency MBS basis going forward.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Lin Li, Head of Global Markets Research Asia, discuss the outlook for China’s economy and the renminbi.
With USD/CNY just hitting the highest level since 2007 is this the start of another leg lower for the renminbi? What are the potential spill-overs for the global economy and FX market? 

Following today’s employment report from the US, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Matthieu Gloux, Head of Global Client Sales for EMEA, about the implications for the dollar and whether the data changes the outlook for Fed policy.
Derek also highlights the changes to MUFG’s US dollar forecasts following the release today of the monthly Foreign Exchange Outlook publication and updates listeners on the MUFG Research trade ideas.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Jack Greenslade from the Global Customer Marketing Group discuss the main drivers of the USD’s strong rebound over the summer. Is the USD rally likely to extend further beyond Jackson Hole?

The increased focus on China and the potential fallout from a continued weakening of growth and missed payments linked to property market losses played a key role in driving markets this week.  
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Swiss Corporate Sales, about the increased influence of CNY in the FX markets and why these developments and other factors remain supportive for the US dollar. Derek looks ahead to next week and the Jackson Hole Symposium and the possible risks of intervention in USD/JPY.

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, reviews the recent Fitch downgrade of the U.S. credit to AA+ and compares it to the first downgrade by S&P roughly 12 years ago. He believes this time the backdrop is different given that the debt loads are even larger now and the Fed has rates much higher versus back then when rates were anchored by the near zero rate policy of that time period. Market reactions thus far are also different versus the first downgrade too. The other issue is that the Fitch downgrade occurred during a week when the Treasury was announcing the need to issue more debt and increase the auction sizes of Treasury securities. George has been highlighting that the sequence from the Fed to the BoJ tweaking YCC and then more UST debt, all of which have largely come to fruition as per George’s views, should result in rates in the middle of the yield curve (known as the belly and/or intermediate rates) would do most of the adjustment higher. So far that is what we have seen with 10s now well above the 4% level. Lastly, George looks forward and discusses why NFP, which is always important, but unless it breaks the string of weaker NFP reports of late, than the Fed is likely to skip in September.  

Following another favourable US inflation report this week, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Shan Husain, Vice President, Financial Institutional Sales EMEA, about the financial market reaction to the data and what it means for the US dollar and rates going forward. Derek also looks ahead to next week which will see the focus on inflation turn to the UK.

In this month’s episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, Glenn Schultz, discusses July's prepayment data and gives the lowdown on the Spring/Summer selling season's turnover. He also reviews relative value across the specified pool stories highlighting those he believes offer MBS investors superior relative carry.  Finally, Glenn reviews our basis forecast and makes the argument for our year-end target of 120 to 130 basis points for the 30-year agency current coupon.
 

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst in London, discuss the main market impacts from the recent surprise announcements from the BoJ and Fitch. The USD has staged a strong rebound since the middle of last month, will it continue in the week ahead?  

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Vice President from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the BoJ’s decision to make YCC more flexible and recent policy updates from the ECB and Fed.
Will the BoE deliver another hawkish policy update in the week ahead?