The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Navigating "secondary tariffs" in global energy markets

US President Trump has threatened to impose “secondary tariffs” at a rate of 25% on countries that purchase crude oil from Venezuela, aiming to stymie its oil trade with other nations. The move is seen as a novel dimension in the new US administrations policy toolkit to use as leverage in achieving its foreign and domestic policy goals.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), discusses the reverberations of these “secondary tariffs” and offers reasons to believe why the gravitational tilt for oil prices remains to the downside despite the risks of a removal of crude barrels from global oil markets.

What are the main takeaways for the FX market from this week's central bank updates?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the latest policy updates from the Fed, BoJ, BoE. How is heightened uncertainty related to President Trump's policy plans impacting central bank communication?
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Tariffs, inflation expectations and the outperformance of commodities

Uncertainty about US policy, especially trade policy, has contributed to substantial rises in inflation uncertainty and in the University of Michigan’s measure of long-term US household inflation expectations, which has risen to the highest since 1995.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), believes that as tariff threats, inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty rise further, commodities act as a critical inflation hedge as physical assets historically deliver strong real returns when inflation rises, while equity and bond real returns tend to be negative.

March 2025 FOMC Preview: Not in a hurry to get worried

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps what has been driving market volatility as well as where he thinks broader markets may go in the short-run. Additionally, he goes over what to expect at the March FOMC meeting where the Fed likely conveys a neutral message as they are "not in a hurry" to cut rates or get worried about the recent market vol and financial conditions tightening.

Eventful week ahead with BoJ key for JPY direction

The dollar is ending this week on a weaker footing and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Simon Mayes Head of UK, Ireland & Switzerland FX Corporate Sales about the drivers in the FX markets and looks ahead to the numerous central bank meetings taking place on Wednesday and Thursday. Derek hones in on the BoJ and the yen and highlights the key focuses of the BoJ meeting for the markets and how JGB yields are an important influence of JPY direction.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

All change in the FX market as US exceptionalism is challenged?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Shan Husain, Institutional FX Sales discuss the impact of the significant policy shift taking place in Germany. Why has the USD failed to strengthen in response to President Trump’s tariffs this week?
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

China NPC 2025: Proactive policies support a positive transition of growth model

With China's annual Two Sessions meetings underway, Dr. Lin Li, Head of Global Markets Research for Asia, delves into the key takeaways from the Work Report by the National People's Congress for 2025. 

Policy risks and commodities

Commodities are front and centre in President Trump’s trade and foreign policies as his administration pursues US dominance, spurred by competition with China. This paradigm envisions affordable US energy prices, higher US output in the old economy (such as, crude oil and manufacturing) and new economy (such as, power, metals, and AI).
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), discusses the policy shifts and offers motivations as to why the elevated level of uncertainty reinforces the diversifying role commodities continue to play in portfolio allocation this year.

US Macro Insights February 2025 NFP Preview (Podcast Version)

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps our most recent monthly titled – The Ides of March where he highlights analysis on the Senate and House's Budget plans and risks to the fiscal outlook in the budget process. Additionally, George summarizes what to look out for in February's payroll number.  

JPY upside risks

The US dollar remains weaker on a year-to-date basis on President Trump’s more pragmatic approach to implementing trade tariffs. But that could be about to change. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher Head of Japanese Customer FX Sales about the risks for the US dollar going forward given the imminent threat of tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week and the numerous other tariff plans ahead. Derek also discusses the outlook for the yen on the back of more hawkish rhetoric from the BoJ and the potential for further gains ahead.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)