Episodes
Episodes
Friday Mar 08, 2024
Will USD/JPY continue to head lower?
Friday Mar 08, 2024
Friday Mar 08, 2024
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Elizabeth Foster, Research Analyst from the Economic Research Office, discuss what has driven the sharp move lower in USD/JPY over the past week. Will downward momentum for the pair continue ahead of the BoJ’s upcoming policy meeting?
Friday Mar 01, 2024
Will upcoming events spark some revival in FX volatility?
Friday Mar 01, 2024
Friday Mar 01, 2024
FX volatility has fallen sharply – for some currency pairs to levels not seen since before the Global Financial Crisis.
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher in Japanese Client Sales about events in the week ahead that might shake the FX market out of this volatility lull, including the semi-annual testimony to Congress by Fed Chair Powell and the ECB policy meeting.
Today MUFG Research also releases its monthly Foreign Exchange Outlook and Derek outlines some key highlights, including the prospects of a BoJ rate hike in March.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
Friday Mar 01, 2024
Contextualising commodities strength when the Fed cuts interest rates
Friday Mar 01, 2024
Friday Mar 01, 2024
Whilst US exceptionalism and sticky inflation may delay Fed easing into mid-year (and limit its scope), Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), believes that the current set up is increasingly reminiscent of the soft landing Fed easing cycle of 1995 – a period when commodities surged more than 20% within the first nine months.
Yet not all commodities outperform and Ehsan breaks down which sub-commodities are best positioned to experience the strongest gains as the Fed eventually cuts rates.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
Friday Feb 23, 2024
Will G10 FX carry trades continue to outperform?
Friday Feb 23, 2024
Friday Feb 23, 2024
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the performance of G10 FX carry trades at the start of this year.
What are the main downside risks for carry trade performance in the near-term?
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
Friday Feb 23, 2024
ESG implications stemming from 2024's election bonanza
Friday Feb 23, 2024
Friday Feb 23, 2024
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), examines the potential implications of this year’s most important elections and contextualises as to whether 2024 may turn out to be a “preparation year” until crucial election outcomes are known for ESG policy direction.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
Friday Feb 16, 2024
Is fading USD momentum signalling a turn?
Friday Feb 16, 2024
Friday Feb 16, 2024
The US dollar hit its highest level of the year this week and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade in FX Corporate Sales about the FX implications following the US inflation data and GDP data from Europe and Japan. Derek also discusses the return of USD/JPY to the “intervention zone” above the 150-level and whether these levels are sustainable.
Friday Feb 16, 2024
Examining the feasibility of the EU’s 2040 climate targets
Friday Feb 16, 2024
Friday Feb 16, 2024
The European Commission published its communication on the EU climate target, proposing a 90% cut in emissions by 2040, and a separate communication on its Industrial Carbon Management strategy.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), examines whether the plans provide a clear and stable investment signal necessary to drive forward net zero aspirations.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
Thursday Feb 15, 2024
The Trouble with Turnover: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Thursday Feb 15, 2024
Thursday Feb 15, 2024
George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, and Glenn Schultz, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, discuss the January 2024 remittance data as well as the 2024 outlook for prepayment and turnover. They also go over how prepayment turnover is likely to evolve in 2024 and how dislocation in demographics is both observed turnover rates, in addition to home price appreciation and its potential implication on monetary policy going forward.
Wednesday Feb 14, 2024
Higher CPI sends Goldilocks a rude reminder: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Wednesday Feb 14, 2024
Wednesday Feb 14, 2024
This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, discusses the price action since the hawkish FOMC, stronger than expected NFP, hawkish chair Powell 60 minutes interview, and lastly, a higher than expected inflation report. In George’s view the macro and market conditions pre-CPI release were looking too good to be true. George believes that markets were priced for perfection and overdue some level setting after months of nonstop rallying. In the end, the higher CPI sends the Goldilocks crowd a rude reminder that this year will not be a linear progression to a soft-landing outcome, there will be bumps along the way, in our view. This will result in episodic vol.
Friday Feb 09, 2024
USD extends advance against low yielding G10 currencies of CHF & JPY
Friday Feb 09, 2024
Friday Feb 09, 2024
The USD has continued to rebound over the past week although it’s performance has been mixed against other G10 currencies. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about what have been the main drivers of FX performance over the past week. Will the JPY weaken further after hitting fresh year to date lows?
The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Each week MUFG's expert economists, analysts, and strategists provide global market research content covering macro, FX, commodities rates and more.
Rate, review and subscribe for the most authoritative and insightful analysis of the latest financial market themes.
Listen to the EMEA Team (Derek Halpenny, Lee Hardman and Ehsan Khoman) on Fridays; Takahiro Sekido in Tokyo on Tuesdays; and the US Team (George Goncalves on Wednesdays; Glenn Schultz on the first Thursday of each month; and Tom Joyce and Capital Markets Strategy Group on a quarterly basis).