The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Henry Cook, Senior Economist, discuss how major central banks are responding to the escalating conflict in the Middle East and its impact on global energy prices. With the Fed showing less urgency to tighten policy in response to the latest energy price shock, could this help moderate USD strength?

With the conflict in the Middle East set to extend into a third week, Derek Halpenny Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Andrew Mitola, Director in FX Corporate Risk Solutions in New York about three scenarios for how the conflict unfolds from here and what the implications for the US dollar would be based on potential future moves in crude oil prices. Derek also discusses the central bank reaction function to possible inflation pick-ups and what to expect from the central bank meetings taking place next week. With USD/JPY close to the 160-level is the MoF in Tokyo ready to intervene?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss why the USD has rebounded in response to the Middle East conflict.
How does it fit with historical FX performance during energy price shocks?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka‑Fisher, Director in Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, explore why speculation over the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy shifts has triggered a fresh wave of yen weakness.
They also examine how escalating tensions between Iran and the United States could shape the performance of the US dollar in the weeks ahead.

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities speaks to Simon Mayes, Head of FX Sales for the UK and Ireland about the moves of the dollar this week. Derek also outlines elements of PM Takaichi’s speech and the implications for the yen and JGBs.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Andrea Hayward, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss the fallout from the lower house election in Japan.
Will the USD extend its recent rebound on the back of the latest US employment and inflation data?  

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the outlook for the JPY ahead of this weekend’s Lower House election in Japan.
The GBP has also taken a hit in recent days, what have been the main drivers of the weaker GBP?

The US dollar is recovering into the end of the week after the announcement that Kevin Warsh is being nominated for the role of Fed Chair. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities discusses the outlook for the US dollar with Julie Ellert, Head of FraBeLux FX Sales and whether the Warsh announcement changes the outlook for the dollar. Derek also discusses US dollar debasement risks and the impact on the yen from the upcoming snap election in Japan.

In this Podcast, George Goncalves, MUFG Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas discusses how January has been action packed, where isolating the signal from the noise means that the house view at MUFG hasn’t fundamentally changed. In our view, the US economy still looks to be setting down a path of a tale of two halves, with fiscal policies expected to mask underlying weakness in the first half of the year, and with stagnant labor demand being the dominant force in the second half that drags income and consumption growth down. We also discuss the upcoming first FOMC meeting of the year where the Fed may highlight the upcoming benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls, that is expected to show even weaker jobs growth than previously thought, if they wish to project a more dovish tone, but markets are anticipating a relatively hawkish Fed that doesn’t cut again until June when Powell is out as Chair. Meanwhile the surprise factor for the global rates markets has been the large swing in JGB rates. George explores why this is happening and why what is taking place in Japan might be more moving than US data and the Fed, for now.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Sara Maki, an MUFG Graduate Analyst, discuss why the USD has corrected lower over the past week even as US yields have risen. They also discuss the pick-up in JPY volatility after the BoJ’s latest policy update.   

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Sara Maki, an MUFG Graduate Analyst, discuss risks for the JPY from a snap election in Japan. Lee and Sara also discuss President Trump’s latest attack on the Fed’s independence. What is the likely fallout for the USD?

Following the release of the first US nonfarm payrolls report of 2026, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Sara Maki, an MUFG Graduate Analyst to discuss the implication of the jobs report for the dollar and Fed policy. Derek and Sara also discuss factors behind strong growth but weak jobs growth and the breaking news that Japan PM Takaichi is considering calling a general election in February. What will be the implications for the yen?
 

George Goncalves, MUFG's Head of US Macro Strategy, and Agron Nicaj, MUFG’s US Desk Economist, share their outlook for the 2026 US economy and markets. The team expresses their skeptical view on AI's ability to further drive investment and wealth effect spending this year, relative to the many lofty expectations. Presented with a more cautious tone, the first half of the year may experience a boost from the fiscal policies of 2025, but more labor demand is needed in the cyclical sectors of the economy for 2026 to be a year of sustainable economic growth. As an added risk factor, the economy is inextricably linked to markets, now more than ever, and given the starting point for valuations, growth is susceptible to financial shocks. Continued weakness in the labor market, the potential for more accelerated disinflation, and new Fed leadership should enable rates to come down to neutral, or below, in 2026.

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities is joined by Chris Jakubowski Head of FI FX Sales to discuss the fallout in the FX markets following the FOMC meeting this week and what this final meeting of the year means for the US dollar going forward. Derek and Chair also look ahead to the final full week of trading next week and discuss the BoE and BoJ meetings. Can the BoJ restore confidence to the JGB market with a rate hike and a message of more?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the impact on USD/JPY from the upcoming BoJ and Fed policy meetings. USD/JPY has dropped this week as BoJ rate hike expectations have intensified, but will it continue?  

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the pound’s reaction to the UK budget. If the yen continues to weaken will it encourage the BoJ to bring forward rate hike plans?  

Following the supplementary budget announced in Japan on Friday, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Jack Greenslade in Corporate FX Sales to discuss the details of the package what it means for JGB issuance plans going forward and the possible impact on JGB yields and the yen. Looking ahead of next week Derek and Jack discuss the UK budget announcement scheduled for Wednesday 26th November and what will be key for Gilts and the pound.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales (FX), to discuss what has been driving the GBP sell-off over the past week. Is the recent GBP weakness likely to continue heading into next year?

This week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities is joined by Henry Cook, Europe Economist to discuss the implications of the BoE MPC monetary policy decision this week. Henry and Derek discuss the key takeaways from the meeting and the financial market impact on rates and the pound. The upcoming budget implications are also discussed. The budget is crucial both from a political and markets perspective. The outlook for ECB monetary policy and MUFG’s ECB policy and euro forecasts are also outlined.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Jack Greenslade, Deputy Head | UK, Ireland, Swiss and Middle East Corporate Sales, discuss what’s next for the yen after it was by far the worst performing G10 currency in October. The pound has also underperformed alongside the yen recently, will this continue ahead of BoE’s upcoming policy meeting?    

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas, shares our latest macro perspectives in light of the government shutdown and ongoing updates to US trade policy. However, the main focus was on the teams expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting. In addition to expecting a 25bp cut, with reserves continuing to shrink and Chair Powell signaling that the Fed may be approaching the end of its quantitative tightening (QT) program, George believes this meeting could serve as a platform to begin mapping out a path to conclude QT by year-end.

This week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down to talk to Shan Husain in FI FX Sales about the outlook for rates and FX ahead of a busy week. In Japan PM Sanae Takaichi’s speech in the Diet signals fiscal expansion. President Trump will be in Tokyo and then we also have the BoJ meeting on Thursday, following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The softer CPI print today leaves the Fed well placed to cut. Derek also discusses the implications for the pound after weaker than expected inflation data this week.
 

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales (FX), to discuss what has been driving a weaker USD over the past week. How important have political and trade risks been for FX market performance?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss how the latest political developments in France and Japan are impacting the FX market. Heightened uncertainty has helped to lift the price of gold to fresh highs above USD4000/ounce, how have FX rates performed during periods of rising gold prices?