The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

All change in the FX market as US exceptionalism is challenged?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Shan Husain, Institutional FX Sales discuss the impact of the significant policy shift taking place in Germany. Why has the USD failed to strengthen in response to President Trump’s tariffs this week?
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China NPC 2025: Proactive policies support a positive transition of growth model

With China's annual Two Sessions meetings underway, Dr. Lin Li, Head of Global Markets Research for Asia, delves into the key takeaways from the Work Report by the National People's Congress for 2025. 

US Macro Insights February 2025 NFP Preview (Podcast Version)

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps our most recent monthly titled – The Ides of March where he highlights analysis on the Senate and House's Budget plans and risks to the fiscal outlook in the budget process. Additionally, George summarizes what to look out for in February's payroll number.  

JPY upside risks

The US dollar remains weaker on a year-to-date basis on President Trump’s more pragmatic approach to implementing trade tariffs. But that could be about to change. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher Head of Japanese Customer FX Sales about the risks for the US dollar going forward given the imminent threat of tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week and the numerous other tariff plans ahead. Derek also discusses the outlook for the yen on the back of more hawkish rhetoric from the BoJ and the potential for further gains ahead.
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What's been driving the stronger JPY and will it continue?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales, discuss why USD/JPY has fallen back below the 150.00 level. Will the current trends of a stronger JPY and weaker USD continue?

Thoughts from Asia & Europe on what has been contributing to a weaker USD

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst in London, and Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst in Singapore, discuss what has been driving FX markets in Asia and Europe at the start of this year. Topics of discussion include: i) the responses from Asia and Europe to Trump’s tariff policies and ii) the upcoming German elections and potential for Ukraine ceasefire agreement.
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US Macro Insights January 2025 CPI Preview Podcast Version

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps last week’s labor data where we received several important revisions to data and models. Additionally, George highlights what to look out for January's CPI report and concludes with what other potential catalysts to watch for.

Trump tariff delay triggers correction lower for USD?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss how President Trump’s decisions on trade policy have been impacting the FX market this week. Did the BoE’s latest policy update change their outlook for the pound?
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Risk-Off Flashpoint (Now in Focus) Podcast Version

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, summarizes and recaps our monthly titled Risk-Off Flashpoint (Now in Focus), where in our special topic cover labor market dynamics and demographics. Furthermore, George discusses what to expect from this all-important NFP number on Friday. We conclude with what to look out for before the March Fed meeting and what will be influential for US fixed income.

Trade tariffs – will he, won’t he? USD swings ahead

This week draws to a close with a 25% trade tariff set to be implemented on Canada and Mexico. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade, UK, Ireland, Swiss & ME FX Sales, about the FX implications of Trump going ahead with these tariffs over the weekend. Derek also covers the FX implications of the Fed and ECB meeting this week, looks ahead to the BoE policy meeting next week and discusses the strong performance of the yen and what lies ahead.
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January 2025 FOMC Preview: Defiantly Data Dependent?

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, discusses our outlook for the Fed’s first meeting of 2025, in which we believe the Committee should be “defiantly data dependent” and keep rates on hold. We focus on our base case that Powell will deliver a neutral message, but also discuss risks around that view. We conclude with our expectations for how markets will trade in the coming weeks.

What’s next for the USD after setback at start of Trump’s second term?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and James Roulston, FX Institutional Sales, discuss the outlook for the USD at the start of Trump’s second term. Will the Fed’s policy update trigger another leg lower for the USD in the week ahead?
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Will Trump’s inauguration fuel renewed USD buying ahead of anticipated BoJ rate hike?

At the end of the week Chris Jakubowski, Head of Hedge Fund FX Sales sits down with Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities to discuss the key events in the week ahead and how the FX markets may respond. There are high expectations of Trump announcing trade tariffs under Executive Order along with many other policy announcements that could prompt further US dollar gains. How much further can the dollar advance from here? Are the Gilt market concerns overblown? And will the BoJ deliver another hike as it has suggested this week is likely?
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What are the spill-overs into the FX market from the worsening bond market sell-off?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland, Corporate Sales, discuss what has been behind in the sharp sell-off in global bond markets over the past week. How has the FX market been impacted by rising government borrowing costs?
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US 2025 Outlook: A Balancing Act (Podcast Version)

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, summarizes our key themes that will impact the US macro and market landscape in 2025. We focus on what are the potential US economic scenarios ahead, how to think about “Trump 2.0” and what will be the role of the Fed in 2025.  We conclude by reviewing our base-case versus bull/bear scenarios for US fixed income.

US Dollar Projections Post-FOMC: Discussions on Trump Policies, BoJ and the outlook for the Yen

In this final MUFG Global Markets Week Ahead podcast of 2024, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade UK, Ireland & Swiss Corporate Sales about the US dollar following the final FOMC meeting of the year on Wednesday and about the outlook for the dollar as we approach the beginning of 2025. Derek and Jack cover Trump policies, his ability to trigger US dollar depreciation, the BoJ and the outlook for the yen.
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Asia FX 2025 Outlook Podcast Series #4: How will ASEAN FX perform?

Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the growth and FX implications on ASEAN economies in 2025 under a second Trump presidency.
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Asia FX 2025 Outlook Podcast Series #3: Outperformers and Vietnam as microcosm of China+1

Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with MUFG Global Markets Research Asia discusses two key themes, the possible outperformers, PHP and INR, and also how Trump 2.0 will likely focus on the Chinese-linked supply chain this time around and thereby impact Vietnam. 
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Asia FX 2025 Outlook Podcast Series #2: The levers to stimulate China's growth

Lin Li, Head of MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, discusses the status of the Chinese economy, the levers to stimulate China's growth in 2025, and implication of Trump’s tariffs on Chinese economy, USD/CNY pair and its ripple effects on Asian peers.
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Asia FX 2025 Outlook Podcast Series #1: Navigating Asia FX markets in Trump 2.0

Lin Li, Head of MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, discusses main themes governing Asia FX movements and the Asia FX outlook for 2025. Lin highlights the possible impact of Trump's trade policies and tariffs on Chinese and Asian economies and Asia FX, as well as implications of Fed's easing cycle and semiconductor cycle.
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Why has the USD strengthened even as the Fed is set to cut rates again next week?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland, Corporate Sales, discuss what has been driving a stronger USD over the past week.Will the policy pledge from China to provide more support for growth help dampen USD strength?   
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Fed to cut. Will the BoJ hike and take the yen stronger?

After the release of the US jobs report for November Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Chris Jakubowski, Head of Hedge Fund FX Institutional Sales about the impact of the jobs report on Fed rate cut expectations and the US dollar. Derek and Chris also discuss the upcoming ECB meeting next week and the impact of BoJ Governor Ueda’s comments this week in a Nikkei interview. Was this interview the BoJ prepping the market for a December rate hike and what would that mean for the yen?
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What’s behind the correction lower for USD/JPY?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss what has been driving USD/JPY lower over the past week. Will the BoJ hike rates before the end of this year?
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From the lame duck session to a new administration, how to think about rates, macro and the Fed ahead

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks us through some of the key topics and our views from the November monthly report, US Macro2Markets Outlook: Markets feel adrift post-election, now what?
George reiterates the house call that the Fed will likely deliver another 25bp cut for 2024, bringing the total to 100bps of cuts for this past year. We think since this is the last 25bp remaining cut, that was part of the September SEP forecast, why skip it. Furthermore, the FOMC minutes were dovish and flagged that market functioning is now in focus (with the Fed thinking about reducing the RRP rate by 5bps) why skip at year-end and create unnecessary volatile during an illiquid period for broader markets. Not to mention skipping now could come off as political since its in their forecasts from before the election outcome. The only way the Fed does not deliver a cut is if the NFP data meaningfully beats expectations and the prior weak reports get revised higher. We are skeptical that the latest NFP report will be strong given that the data collection period was during the election week when the focus was elsewhere for most in the US. And let’s not forget recent labor market trends have been decelerating.  
Further afield we believe the Fed will cut another 75bps in 2025, where we expect them to skip in January after the inauguration, and then cut once per quarter in March, June, and September bringing rates into the upper 3% levels. We note that there are many different possible Fed rate paths once we get past mid-2025, as there are a variety of Trump policies that could alter the economic landscape. If the economy were to weaken and not respond as quickly to Trump’s pro-growth policies, or worse, the tariffs and immigration policies lead to reduced growth, our bias is for the Fed to cut more. We expect the full interest rates curve to steepen, starting in Q1-2025 (with the 2yr reacting to the Fed still in cutting mode) and continue through the end of the year, as the focus shifts to how the US will allocate and fund US Treasury debt. How the US handles the deficit and debt ahead will also be a main focus of the incoming new Treasury Secretary.