The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In this Podcast, George Goncalves, MUFG Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas discusses how January has been action packed, where isolating the signal from the noise means that the house view at MUFG hasn’t fundamentally changed. In our view, the US economy still looks to be setting down a path of a tale of two halves, with fiscal policies expected to mask underlying weakness in the first half of the year, and with stagnant labor demand being the dominant force in the second half that drags income and consumption growth down. We also discuss the upcoming first FOMC meeting of the year where the Fed may highlight the upcoming benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls, that is expected to show even weaker jobs growth than previously thought, if they wish to project a more dovish tone, but markets are anticipating a relatively hawkish Fed that doesn’t cut again until June when Powell is out as Chair. Meanwhile the surprise factor for the global rates markets has been the large swing in JGB rates. George explores why this is happening and why what is taking place in Japan might be more moving than US data and the Fed, for now.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Sara Maki, an MUFG Graduate Analyst, discuss why the USD has corrected lower over the past week even as US yields have risen. They also discuss the pick-up in JPY volatility after the BoJ’s latest policy update.   

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Sara Maki, an MUFG Graduate Analyst, discuss risks for the JPY from a snap election in Japan. Lee and Sara also discuss President Trump’s latest attack on the Fed’s independence. What is the likely fallout for the USD?

Following the release of the first US nonfarm payrolls report of 2026, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Sara Maki, an MUFG Graduate Analyst to discuss the implication of the jobs report for the dollar and Fed policy. Derek and Sara also discuss factors behind strong growth but weak jobs growth and the breaking news that Japan PM Takaichi is considering calling a general election in February. What will be the implications for the yen?
 

George Goncalves, MUFG's Head of US Macro Strategy, and Agron Nicaj, MUFG’s US Desk Economist, share their outlook for the 2026 US economy and markets. The team expresses their skeptical view on AI's ability to further drive investment and wealth effect spending this year, relative to the many lofty expectations. Presented with a more cautious tone, the first half of the year may experience a boost from the fiscal policies of 2025, but more labor demand is needed in the cyclical sectors of the economy for 2026 to be a year of sustainable economic growth. As an added risk factor, the economy is inextricably linked to markets, now more than ever, and given the starting point for valuations, growth is susceptible to financial shocks. Continued weakness in the labor market, the potential for more accelerated disinflation, and new Fed leadership should enable rates to come down to neutral, or below, in 2026.

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities is joined by Chris Jakubowski Head of FI FX Sales to discuss the fallout in the FX markets following the FOMC meeting this week and what this final meeting of the year means for the US dollar going forward. Derek and Chair also look ahead to the final full week of trading next week and discuss the BoE and BoJ meetings. Can the BoJ restore confidence to the JGB market with a rate hike and a message of more?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the impact on USD/JPY from the upcoming BoJ and Fed policy meetings. USD/JPY has dropped this week as BoJ rate hike expectations have intensified, but will it continue?  

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the pound’s reaction to the UK budget. If the yen continues to weaken will it encourage the BoJ to bring forward rate hike plans?  

Following the supplementary budget announced in Japan on Friday, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Jack Greenslade in Corporate FX Sales to discuss the details of the package what it means for JGB issuance plans going forward and the possible impact on JGB yields and the yen. Looking ahead of next week Derek and Jack discuss the UK budget announcement scheduled for Wednesday 26th November and what will be key for Gilts and the pound.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales (FX), to discuss what has been driving the GBP sell-off over the past week. Is the recent GBP weakness likely to continue heading into next year?

This week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities is joined by Henry Cook, Europe Economist to discuss the implications of the BoE MPC monetary policy decision this week. Henry and Derek discuss the key takeaways from the meeting and the financial market impact on rates and the pound. The upcoming budget implications are also discussed. The budget is crucial both from a political and markets perspective. The outlook for ECB monetary policy and MUFG’s ECB policy and euro forecasts are also outlined.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Jack Greenslade, Deputy Head | UK, Ireland, Swiss and Middle East Corporate Sales, discuss what’s next for the yen after it was by far the worst performing G10 currency in October. The pound has also underperformed alongside the yen recently, will this continue ahead of BoE’s upcoming policy meeting?    

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas, shares our latest macro perspectives in light of the government shutdown and ongoing updates to US trade policy. However, the main focus was on the teams expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting. In addition to expecting a 25bp cut, with reserves continuing to shrink and Chair Powell signaling that the Fed may be approaching the end of its quantitative tightening (QT) program, George believes this meeting could serve as a platform to begin mapping out a path to conclude QT by year-end.

This week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down to talk to Shan Husain in FI FX Sales about the outlook for rates and FX ahead of a busy week. In Japan PM Sanae Takaichi’s speech in the Diet signals fiscal expansion. President Trump will be in Tokyo and then we also have the BoJ meeting on Thursday, following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The softer CPI print today leaves the Fed well placed to cut. Derek also discusses the implications for the pound after weaker than expected inflation data this week.
 

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales (FX), to discuss what has been driving a weaker USD over the past week. How important have political and trade risks been for FX market performance?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss how the latest political developments in France and Japan are impacting the FX market. Heightened uncertainty has helped to lift the price of gold to fresh highs above USD4000/ounce, how have FX rates performed during periods of rising gold prices?

After easing twice this year, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept its policy unchanged in July. Since then, inflation has eased and export momentum is showing signs of weakness. The big question on everyone’s mind is whether MAS will ease again in October?  Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst with the MUFG Global Markets Asia Research team talks to Jamie Tsukakoshi, Head of FX Sales, Global Clients Singapore, about the outlook for MAS policy and the trajectory of the Singapore dollar.

The US dollar is marginally lower this week (-0.5%) with the economic data that was released this week confirming still weakening labour market conditions. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to James Roulston Institutional FX Sales about the LDP leadership election taking place on Saturday and the implications for BoJ policy and the yen going forward. In addition Derek discusses with James the implications of the ongoing government shutdown running into the FOMC meeting later this month.

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, shares how our latest macro thinking has evolved, where our longstanding view that the weak labor market and ongoing large revisions would result in a Fed pivot and a restart of easing in September. There was a high level recap of the special topic from the latest monthly which covered Asia FX reserves. Our analysis shows that we’ve come full circle since the Asia financial crisis which was the catalyst for Asia to accumulate dollars, but with tariffs now in place, perhaps less dollar recycle occurs with clear implications for UST demand. Lastly, our podcast was recorded on the first official day of the government shutdown. George goes into what are the potential scenarios for the economy and how it could impact the way the team views rates and house view.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss how positive US economic data surprises have been encouraging a stronger USD. Will the divergence between weak US employment growth and stronger US GDP growth continue in the week ahead? 

Following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the BoJ meeting on Friday, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities talks to Chris Jack Jakubowski, Hedge Fund FX Institutional Sales about the impact of these central bank meetings on USD/JPY and the dollar more generally. Derek discusses the BoJ decision and how the upcoming LDP leadership election could play and important role in BoJ policy decisions and the yen.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, discuss what has been driving the FX market over the past week.
Will the BoE’s upcoming policy meeting continue to provide support for the GBP?   

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales (FX), to discuss the outlook for the USD after the release of another weak nonfarm payrolls report. Will political uncertainty in France and Japan help to dampen USD weakness?

Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the outlook for the Indonesian rupiah amid political uncertainty. Lloyd also highlights that Bank Indonesia’s FX intervention and the government’s rollback of its controversial policy have helped stabilize market sentiment on the rupiah for now.