The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

The US dollar is marginally lower this week (-0.5%) with the economic data that was released this week confirming still weakening labour market conditions. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to James Roulston Institutional FX Sales about the LDP leadership election taking place on Saturday and the implications for BoJ policy and the yen going forward. In addition Derek discusses with James the implications of the ongoing government shutdown running into the FOMC meeting later this month.

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, shares how our latest macro thinking has evolved, where our longstanding view that the weak labor market and ongoing large revisions would result in a Fed pivot and a restart of easing in September. There was a high level recap of the special topic from the latest monthly which covered Asia FX reserves. Our analysis shows that we’ve come full circle since the Asia financial crisis which was the catalyst for Asia to accumulate dollars, but with tariffs now in place, perhaps less dollar recycle occurs with clear implications for UST demand. Lastly, our podcast was recorded on the first official day of the government shutdown. George goes into what are the potential scenarios for the economy and how it could impact the way the team views rates and house view.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss how positive US economic data surprises have been encouraging a stronger USD. Will the divergence between weak US employment growth and stronger US GDP growth continue in the week ahead? 

Following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the BoJ meeting on Friday, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities talks to Chris Jack Jakubowski, Hedge Fund FX Institutional Sales about the impact of these central bank meetings on USD/JPY and the dollar more generally. Derek discusses the BoJ decision and how the upcoming LDP leadership election could play and important role in BoJ policy decisions and the yen.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, discuss what has been driving the FX market over the past week.
Will the BoE’s upcoming policy meeting continue to provide support for the GBP?   

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales (FX), to discuss the outlook for the USD after the release of another weak nonfarm payrolls report. Will political uncertainty in France and Japan help to dampen USD weakness?

Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the outlook for the Indonesian rupiah amid political uncertainty. Lloyd also highlights that Bank Indonesia’s FX intervention and the government’s rollback of its controversial policy have helped stabilize market sentiment on the rupiah for now.

The US dollar has been broadly stable this week despite the escalation of uncertainty related to Trump's attempts to undermine Fed independence. This week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to James Roulston from FX Institutional Sales about the US dollar implications going forward. Derek also discusses BoJ policy, Japan politics and the yen and whether the political uncertainty emerging in France will impact the euro.

 Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst from London, discuss the FX market fallout from Fed Chair Powell’s keynote speech at Jackson Hole. Could diverging policies between the Fed and other major central banks drive the USD even lower?"

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director in Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss how the latest economic data is shaping the outlook for BoJ and Fed policies. Will widening policy divergence put greater pressure on USD/JPY as we head into the autumn?
 

The dollar weakened again this week, though more modestly - slipping less than 1%. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, joins James Roulston from FX Institutional Sales to unpack the key themes likely to shape FX moves in the weeks ahead. They discuss the implications of Stephen Miran’s appointment to the Fed Board of Governors - what it could mean for Chair Powell’s position in 2026—and assess the impact of the latest tariffs, which came into effect on Thursday. With US CPI data due on 12 August, they explore what to watch for and how it could influence the market.

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, takes us through one of the busiest macro week of the year, where we had the Fed, QRA, BoJ, tariff deadlines and announcements, and a slew of labor data. In the end, the biggest highlight of the week was the extremely weak employment report which also had large revisions to the previous two months. Judging by the markets reaction, the downside in jobs data came as a surprise to markets but was not a shock to our macro team which has been flagging how labor market data has been overstating reality for months.
Additionally, the team discussed the recently published Macro2Markets monthly titled, “At an inflection point or another macro head fake?” where we covered the idea of how risk markets are pricing in a goldilocks scenario and how tariffs can be utilized to pay for the Big Beautiful Bill and the potential changes in Treasury demand. George wraps up by suggesting to stay on guard ahead because risks are now more asymmetric to the downside as risk markets are due a pullback.

The release of a much weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report has triggered significant market movements, as investors increasingly position for a potential Fed rate cut in September. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, speaks with Jack Greenslade from FX Corporate Sales about the report’s implications for the U.S. dollar and Federal Reserve policy. Derek also explores how the softer labour data could influence U.S. tariff decisions and what this means for the Swiss franc.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, sits down with Simon Mayes, Head of Corporate Sales for the UK, Ireland, and Switzerland (FX), to explore the outlook for the Japanese yen following Japan’s Upper House election and the recent US-Japan trade agreement. With a potential policy shift on the horizon, could a hawkish Bank of Japan stance in the coming week give the JPY a boost?

After another week of Trump-driven financial market volatility, attention now turns to Japanese politics. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, sits down with Chris Jakubowski, Head of Hedge Fund FX Sales, to discuss Sunday’s upper house election and its potential implications for the markets next week and beyond.
Upper house elections in Japan are typically low-impact events, but this one feels different. Could we see renewed JGB volatility? What might the results mean for USD/JPY, and is there a risk of a sovereign credit rating downgrade?
Derek and Chris also explore the “demise of US exceptionalism” narrative in light of the latest US capital flow data.

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, takes us through a series of topics as a mid-month update: from tariffs, to the recent softer than expected inflation report, the optically better than expected NFP jobs data, and the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill. Recently, George and the team pushed back their next Fed cut to September from July where they still believe that neutral rates are closer to the low 3% levels versus the current low 4% levels. They are also viewing the long-end as offering value in the midst of higher global rates.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst from London, discuss the FX market's reaction to President Trump’s recent tariff announcements.. They also explore whether rising political uncertainty in Japan ahead of the Upper House elections is playing a role in the yen’s recent weakness.

As markets await President Trump’s announcement on updated reciprocal tariff rates following months of negotiations, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, speaks with Julie Ellert, Head of FX FraBelux Corporate Sales, about the potential implications for FX markets.
With inflation in Japan remaining elevated, they also explore how the Bank of Japan might respond in the months ahead. Could another rate hike be on the horizon? With inflation coming in higher than expected, there’s a risk the BoJ could fall behind the curve.

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, reviewed the economic backdrop and market sentiment heading into another critical week in the US. George made a comprehensive case that the jobs data will likely continue to soften with the unemployment rate notably moving much higher, maybe starting with the June NFP data release. George concludes by recapping his monthly report and noting the irony that uncertainty is lifting on the policy front in DC, yet the consumer is likely tapped out, arguing for the Fed to cut soon.
That said, George acknowledges everything has to go "perfect" for the Fed to cut in July. If the Fed doesn’t cut in July, George expects them to cut in September & argues the longer they wait, the more they will have to cut (which opens the possibility of a 50bp cut in September - 2024 Deja Vu).

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst in London, unpack the factors behind the sharp reversal in the US dollar after it hit new year-to-date lows. Is this just a pause in the downward trend, or the start of a broader recovery? Tune in for insights on what could shape the USD’s direction in the week ahead. Share your thoughts in the comment section.

Following some tentative signs of easing risks in the Middle East, which have helped weaken the US dollar, Derek Halpenny, Head of Global Markets Research EMEA & International Securities, talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland, and Swiss FX Corporate Sales, about the potential implications for the US dollar and the financial markets. Derek also highlights some key takeaways from the numerous central bank meetings this week, including the Fed and the BoJ.

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas recapped an action-packed month full of uncertainty. Weak US fundamentals with the jobs data remaining mixed while inflation continues to come in softer suggesting that the Fed is behind the curve. George then previewed our expectations for the June FOMC meeting where he notes that the US data has deteriorated enough that the Fed may use this meeting to pivot towards a more dovish stance to gain flexibility to ease at future FOMC meetings.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the recent USD sell-off ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Will the escalating military conflict between Israel and Iran help to support the USD after hitting year-to-date lows?

Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the outlook for Malaysia's economy and the ringgit amid lingering global trade uncertainties. Lloyd also highlights that Malaysia's economy is in a domestic-led investment upcycle, which could help cushion the impact of trade headwinds and support ringgit stability.