The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

The MUFG Capital Markets Strategy Group recently published their 2022 Global Markets & Economic Outlook: Transitioning Corporate Strategy for the Post-Pandemic World. In today’s episode, Hailey Orr, MUFG Capital Markets Strategist, discusses key themes from the report including the regime change underway in the economy and markets and the remarkable level of corporate activity taking place as company strategy pivots to investing for a post-pandemic world.
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In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves provides an update on current market volatility and concerns over broad financial conditions tightening. George takes us through the view that the movement in real rates hold the key to what happens next for financial conditions and thus markets. And lastly, George gives us a quick rundown on what to expect at the upcoming January FOMC meeting.
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Since the beginning of 2022, expectations that the Fed will accelerate its rate hikes have strengthened. It is unclear whether the BoJ and the ECB will keep pace with the Fed. However, changes in policy trends with a view to the post-COVID-19 era are almost certain. Last week, Dollar/Yen and the Nikkei Average fell as risk-averse investment flows strengthened and the JPY basis tightened, while JGB yields only fell slightly. The reaction across assets suggests that the structure of the Tokyo market is steadily changing.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects investor activity across JGBs, Nikkei stocks, and foreign bonds in December, as well as additional insights from the November U.S. TIC data. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.
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The current equity market correction lower in the U.S. is the biggest since October 2020, with risk-off conditions resulting in an emerging pattern of G10 performance we would expect.
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, talks to Chris de Sibert, Head of Institutional Investors FX Sales for EMEA, about risk conditions, USD outlook and the key event next week – the FOMC meeting, with the market now seemingly much better positioned for hawkish communications.
Derek also covers EUR and the turn positive of German 10yr Bund yields, as well as current trade ideas.
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In Part 3 and the final in our podcast series for the Macro2Markets 2022 Outlook, George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, interviews Bill Matthews, MUFG High Yield Credit Analyst, on his outlook for the HY Credit market in 2022. George and Bill discuss the Fed-induced financial conditions tightening among other things, where the High Yield market is not immune to any meaningful repricing of risk assets, but its lower duration footprint and strong credit fundamentals is leading it to trade, for now, towards the bottom of our forecast spread range.  
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One of the early surprises in the New Year has been the USD’s failure to track US yields higher on the back of the recent hawkish shift in policy. Does this mark an important turning point for the USD?
Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, discusses the implications for the FX market and other risks to watch out for in the week ahead with Simon Mayes, Director of MUFG’s Global Customer Marketing Group, for EMEA in London.
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In Part 2 of the Macro2Markets 2022 Outlook, George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, interviews Eric Ruff, Investment Grade Credit Analyst, on his outlook for the IG Credit market in 2022. George and Eric discuss the overall credit spread outlook of the IG Index for the year, their views on  focus sectors, and the resilience of the IG market in light of the risks of tighter Fed policy and financial conditions, which may lead to potential volatility ahead.
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In Part 1 of the Macro2Markets 2022 Outlook, George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, interviews Glenn Schultz, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Prepayment Modeling and Strategy on his 2022 outlook. George and Glenn discuss the issuance outlook and dynamics of the agency MBS market, and the outlook for the overall U.S. residential housing market against the backdrop of Federal Reserve tightening and QE tapering.
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2022 is now underway. The Fed is showing a hawkish policy stance even as the Omicron COVID-19 variant surges. The BoJ made its initial offers in the new climate change countermeasure operations while also announcing to extend and scale back COVID-19 countermeasure operations around the end of the year. In December, the MoF rushed to get Cabinet approval for the FY22 budget ahead of the regular Diet session. The Nikkei Average and USDJPY have dropped in early January as JPY rates have risen, but JPY basis has stayed tight.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects the key points to follow in Japanese politics, the MoF’s plans for JGB issuance, the BoJ’s monetary operations and JPY flow of funds for the first half of 2022. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis. 
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We’ve had quite a start to 2022 with a spike in U.S. yields after another hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve.
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, provides his thoughts on the near-term outlook following the U.S. jobs report and the FOMC minutes.
MUFG has also released its Annual Outlook report and Derek talks through some of the key forecasts for the year ahead.
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In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves briefly goes over his recently published 2022 Macro2Markets outlook report, where he provides the topics covered in the report and goes into his macro framework for the year ahead. On the more tactical side, George also gives us his latest list of factors that he will be watching for in the early days of 2022.
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The end of the year is at hand. USDJPY upside has been heavy since the Omicron COVID-19 variant emerged. Overseas investors have been building up their medium- to long-term JPY bond positions, and JPY basis has been tightening. With investors awaiting the release of Japan’s FY22 budget and JGB issuance plans, JPY rates have been flat. 
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects the results of the BoJ’s December meeting as well as Japan stock, JGB, and foreign bond flows in November, while looking ahead to Japanese investors’ U.S. bond flows in 2022, based on USTIC and BoP data. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis. 
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The BoE, ECB and Fed have all provided hawkish policy updates over past week. It has been clear that combating upside risks to inflation has become the most immediate policy concern, especially for the BoE and Fed. In contrast, the BoJ understandably continues to sound more relaxed over inflation risks.
Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, discusses the implications for the FX market and remaining risks to watch out for over the holiday period with Simon Mayes, Director of MUFG’s Global Customer Marketing Group for EMEA in London.
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In today’s episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves provides his view on the upcoming and last FOMC meeting of 2021. As our title suggests, the Fed could be heading into a Catch-22 in 2022, where the challenge now is that financial conditions and market sentiment linked to it are so intertwined with the Fed’s balance-sheet. Thus as the Fed tapers faster and pulls forward hikes in 2022, the give and take between rates and financial conditions more broadly will likely dictate how far and how high the Fed can lift rates before materially impacting markets to the downside.
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Global stock markets and USDJPY turned volatile with the discovery of the Omicron COVID-19 variant, but markets then quickly recovered and volatility has fallen. JPY rates did not drop markedly, but JPY basis has tightened. Overseas investors have been arbitraged JPY basis as Japanese investors have been actively rebalancing their asset portfolios. Will the Bank of Japan make changes to its COVID-19 countermeasure operations as the U.S. accelerates monetary tapering? In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the December BoJ Tankan survey, the upcoming BoJ December meeting, and first half fiscal year 2021 life insurance company earnings. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis. 
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The week ahead – the final full week of trading for many markets – will be packed with Central Bank meetings. There will be no fewer than six G10 Central Bank announcements and seven amongst Emerging Markets Central Banks.
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, hones in on a few of the key announcements with Michael Owen, MUFG’s Head of Global Client desk in London.
What does Friday’s US CPI print mean for the Fed, the expectations of QE tapering being quickened and for the dollar more broadly especially when compared to policy announcements from the ECB and BoE? Listen now to find out.
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The emergence of the Omicron COVID-19 variant has upended JPY market pricing. USD has been sold against JPY, Nikkei selling has picked up speed, JPY rates have gone from flat to downward, and JPY basis has tightened. But investors are still seeking arbitrage opportunities for their spare funds.In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the 2021 year in review and his outlook for 2022, as well as near-term monetary supply and fiscal fund supply and demand dynamics. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis. 
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FX volatility has continued to pick up over the past week as market participants await further clarity over the potential impact on the global economy from the new COVID variant. The uncertainty should make DM central banks more cautious over tightening policy in the near-term. However, the Fed has signalled that it plans to speed up tightening at their next FOMC meeting.
Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, discusses the implications for the FX market with Martin Viohl, Director of MUFG’s Global Customer Marketing Group for EMEA in London.
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Risk related to the new Omicron COVID-19 variant from South Africa roiled Tokyo markets at the end of last week. On November 26, the Kishida Administration announced slight revisions to the JGB issuance plans to meet additional economic support measures. New JGB issuances will be limited, compared to the scale of the budget. Market conditions have been transformed in the space of just a few days.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the revisions to the FY21 JGB issuance plans and implications for JPY rates as well as cross-border flow information from recently released September TIC data. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis.
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The massive risk-off move in the financial markets today could have meaningful global repercussions for investors. This week, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets and International Securities, discusses the implications of the latest upturn in COVID risks with Simon Mayes, Director of MUFG’s Global Customer Marketing Group for EMEA in London.
Can the surge of the yen continue, and what does FX positioning and monetary policy expectations tell us about possible FX moves ahead? Listen to find out.
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A key piece of uncertainty has been addressed with the nomination of Chair Powell to run the Fed for another four more years, while Fed Governor Brainard was also nominated to the vice chair role. Meanwhile, last week the U.S. House passed their version of the Build Back Better Stimulus plan, but with the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday ahead, we don’t believe the bill is close to being finalized in the Senate.
However in Japan, the Kishida administration announced additional economic stimulus measures on November 19, with fiscal spending of JPY55.7 trillion. JPY basis has been widening and USDJPY spot rates and the Nikkei stock indexes have been firm. The U.S. rates markets have had another decidedly shift upwards as markets interpret the Fed nomination selection as a more hawkish outcome. 
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido and MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves discuss how these developments are impacting their views in their respective markets and what to expect ahead.
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Market participants are becoming more fearful of downside risks to growth in Europe. The latest COVID wave has already prompted policymakers to re-tighten restrictions. It joins the energy price shock, geopolitical tensions with Russia and the developing currency crisis in Turkey on the list of worries for European investors. In contrast, the US economy has regained upward momentum and the Fed’s communication is turning more hawkish.
Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Michael Owen, MUFG’s Head of Global Client desk for EMEA in London, discuss the market implications of last week's events, adding a long USD/CZK trade idea to reflect these risks.
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In today's episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves recaps what has amounted to one of the most interesting years in the bond markets. He also reminds us that the year is not over, and there are more key fiscal, Fed, and economic events ahead that could still result in even more interesting twists and turns in markets.
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Another shock inflation print in the U.S. this week will likely have consequences for the FX markets going forward. This week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, discusses this and other FX themes in focus with Chris de Sibert, Head of Institutional Investors FX Sales for EMEA.
What are the implications for the USD as US yields drift higher and what are the consequences for the pound with increasing speculation that the UK government could be about to trigger Article 16 under the Northern Ireland Protocol?
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