The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Eventful week ahead with BoJ key for JPY direction

The dollar is ending this week on a weaker footing and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Simon Mayes Head of UK, Ireland & Switzerland FX Corporate Sales about the drivers in the FX markets and looks ahead to the numerous central bank meetings taking place on Wednesday and Thursday. Derek hones in on the BoJ and the yen and highlights the key focuses of the BoJ meeting for the markets and how JGB yields are an important influence of JPY direction.
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All change in the FX market as US exceptionalism is challenged?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Shan Husain, Institutional FX Sales discuss the impact of the significant policy shift taking place in Germany. Why has the USD failed to strengthen in response to President Trump’s tariffs this week?
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China NPC 2025: Proactive policies support a positive transition of growth model

With China's annual Two Sessions meetings underway, Dr. Lin Li, Head of Global Markets Research for Asia, delves into the key takeaways from the Work Report by the National People's Congress for 2025. 

Policy risks and commodities

Commodities are front and centre in President Trump’s trade and foreign policies as his administration pursues US dominance, spurred by competition with China. This paradigm envisions affordable US energy prices, higher US output in the old economy (such as, crude oil and manufacturing) and new economy (such as, power, metals, and AI).
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), discusses the policy shifts and offers motivations as to why the elevated level of uncertainty reinforces the diversifying role commodities continue to play in portfolio allocation this year.

US Macro Insights February 2025 NFP Preview (Podcast Version)

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps our most recent monthly titled – The Ides of March where he highlights analysis on the Senate and House's Budget plans and risks to the fiscal outlook in the budget process. Additionally, George summarizes what to look out for in February's payroll number.  

JPY upside risks

The US dollar remains weaker on a year-to-date basis on President Trump’s more pragmatic approach to implementing trade tariffs. But that could be about to change. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher Head of Japanese Customer FX Sales about the risks for the US dollar going forward given the imminent threat of tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week and the numerous other tariff plans ahead. Derek also discusses the outlook for the yen on the back of more hawkish rhetoric from the BoJ and the potential for further gains ahead.
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Tariffs, deglobalisation and the implications on sustainability

Conventional wisdom suggests tariffs leads to demand destruction, which in-turn could ease environmental impacts (through lower carbon intensity that lower GDP growth brings on a first order basis). Having said that, should there be a re-allocation of production, onshore or to other trade partners – due to the forces of deglobalisation – then the energy and/or electricity mix of the alternative country’s matter.
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), offers a list of considerations for corporates and investors looking to assess sustainability impacts of recent tariff developments.

What's been driving the stronger JPY and will it continue?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales, discuss why USD/JPY has fallen back below the 150.00 level. Will the current trends of a stronger JPY and weaker USD continue?

Sustainability implications from the AI Action Summit

The AI Action Summit took place in Paris between 10-11 February that led to a host of significant announcements supporting the rise of datacentres and AI in Europe. Discussions at the summit, centred on three critical areas: (i) accelerating global AI development; (ii) managing the AI transition while protecting individual freedoms; and (iii) aligning AI with humanist values.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), delves into the specifics and offers implications of what corporates and investors can tangibly expect to see transpire from the summit.

Thoughts from Asia & Europe on what has been contributing to a weaker USD

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst in London, and Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst in Singapore, discuss what has been driving FX markets in Asia and Europe at the start of this year. Topics of discussion include: i) the responses from Asia and Europe to Trump’s tariff policies and ii) the upcoming German elections and potential for Ukraine ceasefire agreement.
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