The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Rupiah outlook tested by protests

Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the outlook for the Indonesian rupiah amid political uncertainty. Lloyd also highlights that Bank Indonesia’s FX intervention and the government’s rollback of its controversial policy have helped stabilize market sentiment on the rupiah for now.

US dollar resilience unlikely to last

The US dollar has been broadly stable this week despite the escalation of uncertainty related to Trump's attempts to undermine Fed independence. This week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to James Roulston from FX Institutional Sales about the US dollar implications going forward. Derek also discusses BoJ policy, Japan politics and the yen and whether the political uncertainty emerging in France will impact the euro.

What’s next for the USD after Jackson Hole?

 Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst from London, discuss the FX market fallout from Fed Chair Powell’s keynote speech at Jackson Hole. Could diverging policies between the Fed and other major central banks drive the USD even lower?"

How is the changing outlook for BoJ and Fed policies impacting USD/JPY?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director in Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss how the latest economic data is shaping the outlook for BoJ and Fed policies. Will widening policy divergence put greater pressure on USD/JPY as we head into the autumn?
 

USD downside risk increasing

The dollar weakened again this week, though more modestly - slipping less than 1%. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, joins James Roulston from FX Institutional Sales to unpack the key themes likely to shape FX moves in the weeks ahead. They discuss the implications of Stephen Miran’s appointment to the Fed Board of Governors - what it could mean for Chair Powell’s position in 2026—and assess the impact of the latest tariffs, which came into effect on Thursday. With US CPI data due on 12 August, they explore what to watch for and how it could influence the market.

At an inflection point or another macro head fake? (Podcast Edition)

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, takes us through one of the busiest macro week of the year, where we had the Fed, QRA, BoJ, tariff deadlines and announcements, and a slew of labor data. In the end, the biggest highlight of the week was the extremely weak employment report which also had large revisions to the previous two months. Judging by the markets reaction, the downside in jobs data came as a surprise to markets but was not a shock to our macro team which has been flagging how labor market data has been overstating reality for months.
Additionally, the team discussed the recently published Macro2Markets monthly titled, “At an inflection point or another macro head fake?” where we covered the idea of how risk markets are pricing in a goldilocks scenario and how tariffs can be utilized to pay for the Big Beautiful Bill and the potential changes in Treasury demand. George wraps up by suggesting to stay on guard ahead because risks are now more asymmetric to the downside as risk markets are due a pullback.

Weak jobs data a gamechanger

The release of a much weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report has triggered significant market movements, as investors increasingly position for a potential Fed rate cut in September. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, speaks with Jack Greenslade from FX Corporate Sales about the report’s implications for the U.S. dollar and Federal Reserve policy. Derek also explores how the softer labour data could influence U.S. tariff decisions and what this means for the Swiss franc.

Will the BoJ policy update provide trigger for a JPY rebound?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, sits down with Simon Mayes, Head of Corporate Sales for the UK, Ireland, and Switzerland (FX), to explore the outlook for the Japanese yen following Japan’s Upper House election and the recent US-Japan trade agreement. With a potential policy shift on the horizon, could a hawkish Bank of Japan stance in the coming week give the JPY a boost?

Japan, Politics and the Yen - Is It All Priced?

After another week of Trump-driven financial market volatility, attention now turns to Japanese politics. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, sits down with Chris Jakubowski, Head of Hedge Fund FX Sales, to discuss Sunday’s upper house election and its potential implications for the markets next week and beyond.
Upper house elections in Japan are typically low-impact events, but this one feels different. Could we see renewed JGB volatility? What might the results mean for USD/JPY, and is there a risk of a sovereign credit rating downgrade?
Derek and Chris also explore the “demise of US exceptionalism” narrative in light of the latest US capital flow data.

Mid-Month Update: Balancing Tariff News vs Recent Data Trends

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, takes us through a series of topics as a mid-month update: from tariffs, to the recent softer than expected inflation report, the optically better than expected NFP jobs data, and the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill. Recently, George and the team pushed back their next Fed cut to September from July where they still believe that neutral rates are closer to the low 3% levels versus the current low 4% levels. They are also viewing the long-end as offering value in the midst of higher global rates.

How has the FX market responded to Trump’s latest tariff announcements?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst from London, discuss the FX market's reaction to President Trump’s recent tariff announcements.. They also explore whether rising political uncertainty in Japan ahead of the Upper House elections is playing a role in the yen’s recent weakness.

The BoJ, yen and Trump’s tariff announcement

As markets await President Trump’s announcement on updated reciprocal tariff rates following months of negotiations, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, speaks with Julie Ellert, Head of FX FraBelux Corporate Sales, about the potential implications for FX markets.
With inflation in Japan remaining elevated, they also explore how the Bank of Japan might respond in the months ahead. Could another rate hike be on the horizon? With inflation coming in higher than expected, there’s a risk the BoJ could fall behind the curve.

June 2025 NFP Preview (Podcast Edition)

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, reviewed the economic backdrop and market sentiment heading into another critical week in the US. George made a comprehensive case that the jobs data will likely continue to soften with the unemployment rate notably moving much higher, maybe starting with the June NFP data release. George concludes by recapping his monthly report and noting the irony that uncertainty is lifting on the policy front in DC, yet the consumer is likely tapped out, arguing for the Fed to cut soon.
That said, George acknowledges everything has to go "perfect" for the Fed to cut in July. If the Fed doesn’t cut in July, George expects them to cut in September & argues the longer they wait, the more they will have to cut (which opens the possibility of a 50bp cut in September - 2024 Deja Vu).

What's next for the USD after Middle East tensions ease?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst in London, unpack the factors behind the sharp reversal in the US dollar after it hit new year-to-date lows. Is this just a pause in the downward trend, or the start of a broader recovery? Tune in for insights on what could shape the USD’s direction in the week ahead. Share your thoughts in the comment section.

USD downside risks persist in most Middle East scenarios

Following some tentative signs of easing risks in the Middle East, which have helped weaken the US dollar, Derek Halpenny, Head of Global Markets Research EMEA & International Securities, talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland, and Swiss FX Corporate Sales, about the potential implications for the US dollar and the financial markets. Derek also highlights some key takeaways from the numerous central bank meetings this week, including the Fed and the BoJ.

June 2025 FOMC Preview Podcast Edition - It’s never “too late” to pivot (so long as it’s to the dovish side)

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas recapped an action-packed month full of uncertainty. Weak US fundamentals with the jobs data remaining mixed while inflation continues to come in softer suggesting that the Fed is behind the curve. George then previewed our expectations for the June FOMC meeting where he notes that the US data has deteriorated enough that the Fed may use this meeting to pivot towards a more dovish stance to gain flexibility to ease at future FOMC meetings.

Will Middle East tensions trigger a reversal of the weakening USD trend?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the recent USD sell-off ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Will the escalating military conflict between Israel and Iran help to support the USD after hitting year-to-date lows?

Malaysia's strong investment to support ringgit

Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the outlook for Malaysia's economy and the ringgit amid lingering global trade uncertainties. Lloyd also highlights that Malaysia's economy is in a domestic-led investment upcycle, which could help cushion the impact of trade headwinds and support ringgit stability. 

What's next for the USD after the latest NFP report?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales (FX), to discuss FX market developments over the past week. It has been a mixed week for the USD but will the weakening trend remain place?  

The Great Whiplash (Podcast Version)

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, walks us through the latest developments in US macro and markets which was covered in the last monthly titled "The Great Whiplash". George highlights that the constant policy shifts, especially on the trade front, has led to tight trading ranges - even as we sit at local highs in both stocks and rates. Given the constant news flow challenges, and that it pays to be tactical in this environment, George previews the upcoming NFP jobs report and what to expect and what it will mean for Fed policy options ahead.

US dollar confidence to remain an issue

Following another week of debate over President Trump’s trade tariffs, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, speaks with Shan Husain from FI FX Sales about the latest developments. They discuss legal uncertainties around reciprocal tariffs, the impact on the US dollar, and concerns about confidence in US assets. Derek also looks ahead to next week’s ECB meeting and growing sentiment in Europe that the euro could strengthen its role as a global reserve currency amid doubts about the dollar.

Indonesia policy and FX outlook

Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the outlook for the Indonesian rupiah following the 2 April US Liberation Day and last week’s Bank Indonesia policy meeting. Lloyd also highlights that Indonesia's economy had slowed even before US Liberation Day and the BI could cut the policy rate one more time in Q3, possibly in September. 

What’s behind the latest USD sell-off?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Abdul-Ahad, Currency Analyst, to discuss what has triggered renewed selling over the past week. Will the loss of confidence in the US and Japanese debt markets have a spillover impact on the FX market?   

Foreign investors still buying UST bonds

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade in FX Sales about the move in financial markets this week following the US-China trade war de-escalation announced on Monday. Derek explains why the dollar gain petered out quickly but also highlights the huge buying of UST bonds by private foreign investors. So even though foreign central banks might be selling, the buying by private investors easily offsets that. Derek and Jack also discuss the USD/Asia moves and how investors’ behaviours in regard to hedging USD exposures may be changing.