The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Inflation data a key test for market optimism: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

US yields have stabilised following a post-US jobs jump last Friday and Monday with a wave of Fed official comments failing to extend yields further higher. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities,  discusses with Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, the implications of this for the US dollar while looking ahead to the key US CPI data next week.
Derek also discusses the impact on the Swedish krona  after the Riksbank meeting and the outlook for the pound ahead of a busy week of economic data releases.
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Contextualising the European ban on Russian oil products: The MUFG Global Market

5 February marked another seismic change in global oil markets, as the European Union added another layer to its boycott of Russian petroleum products. These sanctions bring the total volumes that Europe needs to replace to approximately 2.4 million barrels per day – and could well require a back-to-the-drawing-board approach to global oil routes if Europe wishes to avoid an acute deficit.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), discusses whether Europe can weather the upcoming storm given challenging global supply dynamics.
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Turnover Limbo and the Lock-In Effect: How Low Can It Go: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

In today’s episode, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, Glenn Schultz discusses the lock-in effect, turnover, and existing home sales. He also considers if the lock-in effect is overstated and the relative value implication for new production discount mortgage backed securities.
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Repricing of rates while other asset classes focus strictly on soft landing: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, recaps the price action post the FOMC and the strong, more like wow, reading from the latest jobs report. George believes the rates market is normalizing to the idea that the Fed is “not done” and will likely be on hold for longer at higher rates, as well. That said, longer-term rates investors remain skeptical about the current state of the economy and the ability of the Fed to maintain rates elevated, or at a minimum, or are using long duration as a hedge to a potential financial accident and/or exogenous shock ahead.
Meanwhile, if the next inflation reading declines less than expected, or worse, hints that the services side inflation remains “sticky” that could result in further repricing ahead, where that would not only hit rates but broader financial assets as well, like credit and equities. Overall, we continue to view the recent bounce as a bear market rally.
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Will the BoJ’s master architect of non-traditional monetary policy design a way out?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Dollar/Yen is up following media reports that current Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya will be nominated as the next head of the central bank. Yen rates are stable, as traders appear to be awaiting the formal announcement. The Chinese Lunar New Year holidays are over, and Yen asset trading among Asian investors has picked back up. 
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses recent media reports about BoJ leadership nominations and shares his outlook across markets in February. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
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How are FX markets responding as central banks move closer to the end of their hiking cycles? The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Vice President of Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the main takeaways from this week’s central bank policy updates.
Seiko and Lee will also discuss risks for the JPY from the government’s upcoming announcement about the next BoJ governor.
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Middle East 2023 outlook – In a league of its own: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

The Middle East region stands out as the global outlier in a world facing multitude of headwinds and recession. Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), discusses MUFG’s Middle East 2023 outlook report published earlier this week.
Ehsan opines that rapid economic and social transformation alongside the expected 10yr supply-constrained energy supercycle, is strengthening the compelling story for a region which continues to see its stars align. See here for the full report.
 
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New BoJ leadership to represent change the shift from Abenomics to Kishida’s New Style of Capitalism: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Dollar/Yen has been trading around 130, and Yen rate volatility has eased with the BoJ’s December surprise a thing of the past after the bank held the line in January. All eyes are on potential nominees for BoJ leadership.
In today’s episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses what to watch during the fiscal year 2023 ordinary Diet session, the nomination process for the next BoJ governor and deputy governors, the shift from Abenomics to the Kishida Administration’s New Style of Capitalism, and implications for markets. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
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Fed hawkish surprise required to trigger FX move: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

The US dollar has rebounded modestly as the week comes to an end, ahead of some key events next week. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Swiss Corporate Sales, about the outlook for the FX markets ahead of the FOMC meeting and whether this key event may trigger a turn stronger for the dollar.
Derek also provides his view on the ECB and BoE meetings which also take place next week.
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Emerging markets 2023 outlook – A tale of two halves: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Distressingly high inflation, elevated interest rates, the war in Ukraine, COVID outbreaks in China and a dominant US dollar dented the performance of EMs in 2022. While EMs continue to grapple with the same themes at the turn of the year, we view 2023 as a tale of two halves.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), discusses MUFG’s emerging markets 2023 outlook. Ehsan writes that the waning effects of market re-openings, a global manufacturing cycle downturn and tighter financial conditions are lumpy headwinds that will weigh on EM prospects in the first half of 2023.
However, China’s zero-COVID policy exit, the end of rate hikes and a US dollar peak, all offer significant tailwinds to the EM complex in the second half of 2023. See here for the full report.
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