The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

US Macro Insights January 2025 CPI Preview Podcast Version

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps last week’s labor data where we received several important revisions to data and models. Additionally, George highlights what to look out for January's CPI report and concludes with what other potential catalysts to watch for.

Trump tariff delay triggers correction lower for USD?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss how President Trump’s decisions on trade policy have been impacting the FX market this week. Did the BoE’s latest policy update change their outlook for the pound?
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Key takeaways from MUFG’s 2025 ESG event

In this week’s special podcast edition, Ehsan Khoman, Head of ESG, Commodities and Emerging Markets Research, is joined by Amanda Kavanaugh, Head of ESG Business Coordination and Strategy, to discuss the key takeaways from MUFG’s inaugural 2025 ESG event, titled, “Navigating the transition for a sustainable future”.

Risk-Off Flashpoint (Now in Focus) Podcast Version

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, summarizes and recaps our monthly titled Risk-Off Flashpoint (Now in Focus), where in our special topic cover labor market dynamics and demographics. Furthermore, George discusses what to expect from this all-important NFP number on Friday. We conclude with what to look out for before the March Fed meeting and what will be influential for US fixed income.

Trade tariffs – will he, won’t he? USD swings ahead

This week draws to a close with a 25% trade tariff set to be implemented on Canada and Mexico. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade, UK, Ireland, Swiss & ME FX Sales, about the FX implications of Trump going ahead with these tariffs over the weekend. Derek also covers the FX implications of the Fed and ECB meeting this week, looks ahead to the BoE policy meeting next week and discusses the strong performance of the yen and what lies ahead.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Sustainability implications from the EU Competitiveness Compass

The European Commission unveiled its “Competitiveness Compass” on 29 January – the Commission’s new economic doctrine, aimed at making regulations simpler, lighter and faster. The Compass lends on three dimensions of Mario Draghi’s “the future of European competitiveness” report in September 2024 – (1) closing the innovation gap, (2) decarbonisation, and (3) increasing energy security, and offers five enablers, (1) the simplification of the regulatory environment, (2) the merits of the Single Market, (3) financing through a Savings and Investments Union, (4) promoting skills and jobs, and (5) strengthening coordination on policy execution.
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), contextualises the sustainability reverberations of this blueprint “Competitiveness Compass” report and what corporates and investors should anticipate as key watchpoints in the coming months ahead.

January 2025 FOMC Preview: Defiantly Data Dependent?

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, discusses our outlook for the Fed’s first meeting of 2025, in which we believe the Committee should be “defiantly data dependent” and keep rates on hold. We focus on our base case that Powell will deliver a neutral message, but also discuss risks around that view. We conclude with our expectations for how markets will trade in the coming weeks.

What’s next for the USD after setback at start of Trump’s second term?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and James Roulston, FX Institutional Sales, discuss the outlook for the USD at the start of Trump’s second term. Will the Fed’s policy update trigger another leg lower for the USD in the week ahead?
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Will Trump’s inauguration fuel renewed USD buying ahead of anticipated BoJ rate hike?

At the end of the week Chris Jakubowski, Head of Hedge Fund FX Sales sits down with Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities to discuss the key events in the week ahead and how the FX markets may respond. There are high expectations of Trump announcing trade tariffs under Executive Order along with many other policy announcements that could prompt further US dollar gains. How much further can the dollar advance from here? Are the Gilt market concerns overblown? And will the BoJ deliver another hike as it has suggested this week is likely?
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Sustainable investing 2025 outlook

If 2024 was a waiting game for elections, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), believes 2025 will be a period of climate action reassessment by corporates and investors in the face of uncertain and evolving political, economic and social realities. Ehsan believes major sustainable investing themes for 2025 will include biodiversity, supply chains and corporate lobbying, with AI considerations set to cut across all 3 ESG pillars.