The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

RBI and Indian Rupee amidst US Election Risks

Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, and Japinder Singh, Vice President Treasury Sales, MUFG India discuss key driving factors behind RBI monetary policy decision and INR in the context of US Elections and what that could mean for the Dollar and Fed policy. 
 
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Pricing in a higher Trump risk premium in the USD

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Reza Nasehi, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss what has been driving the strong USD rebound this month and if the USD continue to strengthen ahead of the US election? 
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Electrifying Europe at the centre of the Draghi Plan

The former ECB President and Italian PM, Mario Draghi, recently presented a study he has conducted on behalf of the European Commission, on how to strengthen Europe's competitiveness and close the productivity gap with the US and China. Electrification appears at the core of the plan with half of the incremental investments suggested by the plan (~EUR450bn of EUR800bn per year) in clean energy and electric mobility.
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), delves further into the Draghi Plan which at face value should bolster increasing power consumption, lower the cost of capital for renewable activities and spur significant capex in power grids and clean energy.

USD buying momentum may fade from here

USD/JPY continues it's advance toward the 150-level and this week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales about the prospects for USD/JPY in the context of a 60bp jump in 2yr US yields, the upcoming election in both Japan and the US, and the argument that the buying momentum may start to fade at these levels. Derek also looks ahead to the ECB monetary policy meeting next week and possible implications for the euro. 
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Contextualising the IEA's latest renewables assessment

At the COP28 UN Climate Change Conference in December 2023, governments agreed to work together to triple the world’s installed renewable energy capacity by 2030. According to the latest IEA assessment, renewables are set to generate nearly half of global electricity by the end of the decade, but the current growth trajectory is not fully in line with the UN goal to triple capacity.
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), examines the IEA’s various scenarios and highlights two critical factors that are set to drive the global renewables expansion for the remainder of this decade.

Jumbo strong jobs report derails the future of jumbo rate cuts, for now…

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, provides an update to our latest house views on the Fed and US rates forecasts post the solid September NFP jobs report. Even though the team have doubts on the overall quality of the recent NFP reading and that one number does not make a trend. At face value it was a strong report and it will likely result in the Fed cutting at a slower pace. We are now expecting the Fed to deliver a 25bp cuts going forward and tweaked on our longer term rates forecasts. 

What's behind the abrupt reversal of the weaker USD trend?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst and Seiko, Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss why the USD has staged a strong rebound over the past week. Recent developments add to their caution in forecasting further USD downside ahead of the US election. 
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Key takeaways from New York climate week and what this may signal for COP29 in November

The conversations during Climate Week in New York, between 22-29 September, had a tone of realism that acknowledged the shortfall in political ambition to address climate change – both in government policies and finance. These deliberations are critical building blocks towards the next major destination for international sustainability discussions at COP29 in Azerbaijan.
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), examines the key takeaways of Climate Week in New York, which top of mind included the continued commitment to solving barriers to an effective sustainable market, concern over higher power demand attributed to the rise of AI and the increased costs of climate impacts.

Japan’s political ‘changing of the guard’ and JPY implications

Following the LDP leadership election in Japan today Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Head of Japanese Client FX Sales about what the implications for BoJ monetary policy and the yen after the victory for Shigeru Ishiba. Derek also looks ahead to next week’s US employment report and the Fed and FX implications.
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The Draghi Report – Decarbonisation, Digitalisation and Defence

Published on 9 September, the Draghi Report on “the future of European competitiveness” is a clarion call that addresses how the EU is trailing the US and China over the past two decades. To avoid what former ECB President, Mario Draghi, calls a “slow agony” the report calls for EUR750-800bn of investment per annum (~5% of GDP) to focus on three areas to reinvigorate growth – decarbonisation, digitalisation and defence.
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), examines the key dimensions of this pertinent report that sets the stage for the EU Commission’s upcoming “Clean Industrial Deal”, advocating game-changing reforms to enhance European competitiveness.